Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetHUL

Ajayi

DEF · £4.2m · Gameweek 7
2.42xPts0.58pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 6
1112.42.93.22.4
GW4 1 points played · GW5 1 points played · GW6 1 points played · GW7 2.4 projected · GW8 2.9 projected · GW9 3.2 projected · GW10 2.4 projected
GW45678910
FULBREIPSARS
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank148thcaptain EV4.84owned13.7%season28 ptspts/£m so far6.67
attack 1.5clean sheet 0.7defence 0.2bonus 0.1= 2.4 xPts
floor 0most likely 1 31%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 1 (31% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.42
Captain EV4.84
Top 15% of sims, average7.58
Projected pts/£m0.576
Expected bonus (per match)0.07
DefCon points (per match)0.16
P(DefCon threshold)0.078
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.66
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.99
Price£4.2m
Ownership13.7%
xPts rank / ownership rank148 / 30
Season points (minutes)28 (513′)
Realized pts/£m6.67
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/279.json.