Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · MidARS

Havertz

FWD · £7.5m · Gameweek 7
4.58xPts0.61pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 9
1224.64.94.24.6
GW4 1 points played · GW5 2 points played · GW6 2 points played · GW7 4.6 projected · GW8 4.9 projected · GW9 4.2 projected · GW10 4.6 projected
GW45678910
NFOEVELIVHUL
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank20thcaptain EV9.15owned6.6%season21 ptspts/£m so far2.80
attack 3.8bonus 0.8= 4.6 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 47%ceiling 9
10,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (47% of simulations), ceiling 9 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)4.58
Captain EV9.15
Top 15% of sims, average11.66
Projected pts/£m0.611
Expected bonus (per match)0.83
DefCon points (per match)0.00
P(DefCon threshold)0.000
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.00
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.99
Price£7.5m
Ownership6.6%
xPts rank / ownership rank20 / 57
Season points (minutes)21 (499′)
Realized pts/£m2.80
Model tierA · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/26.json.