Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetFUL

Robinson

DEF · £4.5m · Gameweek 7

Official FPL feed at forecast capture: Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing (status: d)

Model start prior (before lineup constraints): 0.54. The FPL percentage concerns playing. The model start prior is a separate estimate.

2.30xPts0.51pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 7
1622.31.92.01.9
GW3 1 points played · GW4 6 points played · GW5 2 points played · GW7 2.3 projected · GW8 1.9 projected · GW9 2.0 projected · GW10 1.9 projected
GW34578910
HULCOVAVLNEW
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank163rdcaptain EV4.59owned1.3%season12 ptspts/£m so far2.67
attack 1.1clean sheet 0.8defence 0.1bonus 0.3= 2.3 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 45%ceiling 7
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (45% of simulations), ceiling 7 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.30
Captain EV4.59
Top 15% of sims, average8.72
Projected pts/£m0.511
Expected bonus (per match)0.35
DefCon points (per match)0.13
P(DefCon threshold)0.064
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.76
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.54
Price£4.5m
Ownership1.3%
xPts rank / ownership rank163 / 160
Season points (minutes)12 (429′)
Realized pts/£m2.67
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/254.json.