Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · MidCRY

Nketiah

FWD · £5.5m · Gameweek 7
1.43xPts0.26pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 5
4111.41.61.61.7
GW3 4 points played · GW5 1 points played · GW6 1 points played · GW7 1.4 projected · GW8 1.6 projected · GW9 1.6 projected · GW10 1.7 projected
GW35678910
BHANEWTOTLIV
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank233rdcaptain EV2.86owned0.5%season9 ptspts/£m so far1.64
attack 0.9bonus 0.5= 1.4 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 56%ceiling 5
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (56% of simulations), ceiling 5 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)1.43
Captain EV2.86
Top 15% of sims, average6.72
Projected pts/£m0.260
Expected bonus (per match)0.49
DefCon points (per match)0.00
P(DefCon threshold)0.001
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.00
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.33
Price£5.5m
Ownership0.5%
xPts rank / ownership rank233 / 253
Season points (minutes)9 (182′)
Realized pts/£m1.64
Model tierB · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/224.json.