Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · MidEVE

Brennan Johnson

MID · £5.9m · Gameweek 7
2.58xPts0.44pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 6
3322.62.22.62.9
GW4 3 points played · GW5 3 points played · GW6 2 points played · GW7 2.6 projected · GW8 2.2 projected · GW9 2.6 projected · GW10 2.9 projected
GW45678910
CHEARSNEWCOV
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank136thcaptain EV5.16owned0.1%season11 ptspts/£m so far1.86
attack 2.1clean sheet 0.2defence 0.2bonus 0.1= 2.6 xPts
floor 0most likely 2 37%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 2 (37% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.58
Captain EV5.16
Top 15% of sims, average7.61
Projected pts/£m0.437
Expected bonus (per match)0.13
DefCon points (per match)0.19
P(DefCon threshold)0.093
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.17
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.80
Price£5.9m
Ownership0.1%
xPts rank / ownership rank136 / 391
Season points (minutes)11 (303′)
Realized pts/£m1.86
Model tierB · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/209.json.