Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · BudgetCOV

Bobby Thomas

DEF · £4.0m · Gameweek 7
3.08xPts0.77pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 8
0943.14.04.34.0
GW4 0 points played · GW5 9 points played · GW6 4 points played · GW7 3.1 projected · GW8 4.0 projected · GW9 4.3 projected · GW10 4.0 projected
GW45678910
TOTFULSUNEVE
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank98thcaptain EV6.17owned8.8%season28 ptspts/£m so far7.00
attack 1.3clean sheet 0.5defence 1.1bonus 0.2= 3.1 xPts
floor 0most likely 3 20%ceiling 8
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 3 (20% of simulations), ceiling 8 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we own him, in our XI
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)3.08
Captain EV6.17
Top 15% of sims, average9.17
Projected pts/£m0.770
Expected bonus (per match)0.24
DefCon points (per match)1.05
P(DefCon threshold)0.524
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.48
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.99
Price£4.0m
Ownership8.8%
xPts rank / ownership rank98 / 40
Season points (minutes)28 (527′)
Realized pts/£m7.00
Model tierA · Budget
Our positionwe own him, in our XI

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

Research notes on file: Bobby Thomas. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in the XI of our squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/173.json.