Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetCHE

Colwill

DEF · £4.8m · Gameweek 7
2.59xPts0.54pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 6
1122.62.52.42.5
GW4 1 points played · GW5 1 points played · GW6 2 points played · GW7 2.6 projected · GW8 2.5 projected · GW9 2.4 projected · GW10 2.5 projected
GW45678910
EVETOTMUNSUN
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank135thcaptain EV5.17owned0.8%season5 ptspts/£m so far1.04
attack 1.3clean sheet 0.9defence 0.2bonus 0.1= 2.6 xPts
floor 0most likely 1 24%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 1 (24% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.59
Captain EV5.17
Top 15% of sims, average7.12
Projected pts/£m0.540
Expected bonus (per match)0.07
DefCon points (per match)0.22
P(DefCon threshold)0.111
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.95
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.85
Price£4.8m
Ownership0.8%
xPts rank / ownership rank135 / 199
Season points (minutes)5 (431′)
Realized pts/£m1.04
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/149.json.