Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetCHE

Hato

DEF · £4.5m · Gameweek 7
1.60xPts0.36pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 6
4301.61.61.51.5
GW2 4 points played · GW3 3 points played · GW4 0 points played · GW7 1.6 projected · GW8 1.6 projected · GW9 1.5 projected · GW10 1.5 projected
GW23478910
EVETOTMUNSUN
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank219thcaptain EV3.20owned0.7%season8 ptspts/£m so far1.78
attack 0.9clean sheet 0.6defence 0.1bonus 0.0= 1.6 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 47%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (47% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)1.60
Captain EV3.20
Top 15% of sims, average6.56
Projected pts/£m0.356
Expected bonus (per match)0.03
DefCon points (per match)0.13
P(DefCon threshold)0.063
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.56
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.50
Price£4.5m
Ownership0.7%
xPts rank / ownership rank219 / 214
Season points (minutes)8 (258′)
Realized pts/£m1.78
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/148.json.