Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetARS

Mosquera

DEF · £5.3m · Gameweek 7
0.92xPts0.17pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 3
660.91.00.80.80.8
GW1 6 points played · GW2 6 points played · GW7 0.9 projected · GW8 1.0 projected · GW9 0.8 projected · GW10 0.8 projected · GW11 0.8 projected
GW127891011
NFOEVELIVHULNEW
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank264thcaptain EV1.84owned1.5%season12 pts
attack 0.5clean sheet 0.3defence 0.1bonus 0.0= 0.9 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 65%ceiling 3
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (65% of simulations), ceiling 3 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)0.92
Captain EV1.84
Top 15% of sims, average4.87
Projected pts/£m0.174
Expected bonus (per match)0.02
DefCon points (per match)0.05
P(DefCon threshold)0.023
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.35
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.20
Price£5.3m
Ownership1.5%
xPts rank / ownership rank264 / 145
Season points (minutes)12 (168′)
Realized pts/£m2.26
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/11.json.