Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier S · MidARS

Raya

GK · £6.1m · Gameweek 7
4.18xPts0.69pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 9
14134.24.53.64.0
GW4 14 points played · GW5 1 points played · GW6 3 points played · GW7 4.2 projected · GW8 4.5 projected · GW9 3.6 projected · GW10 4.0 projected
GW45678910
NFOEVELIVHUL
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank36thcaptain EV8.36owned43.7%season33 ptspts/£m so far5.41
attack 1.9clean sheet 1.7bonus 0.6= 4.2 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 26%ceiling 9
10,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (26% of simulations), ceiling 9 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we own him, in our XI
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)4.18
Captain EV8.36
Top 15% of sims, average9.08
Projected pts/£m0.685
Expected bonus (per match)0.62
DefCon points (per match)0.00
P(DefCon threshold)0.000
Clean-sheet points (per match)1.70
Start prior (before lineup constraints)1.00
Price£6.1m
Ownership43.7%
xPts rank / ownership rank36 / 5
Season points (minutes)33 (540′)
Realized pts/£m5.41
Model tierS · Mid
Our positionwe own him, in our XI

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

Research notes on file: Raya. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in the XI of our squad and the XI of the consensus squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/1.json.