# Haaland leads the board; Saka captains the proposed route

> Haaland projects 8.63 ordinary points, Saka 7.02. Captaincy depends on ownership as well as the player ranking.

By the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw7/captains/

## The ranking has not reversed

Haaland remains the highest projected captain option, subject to fitness and minutes after the PSG match. If already owned and available, the saved base model favours him. Saka is captain in the proposed Saka transfer plans because those squads do not own Haaland. The held website Model roster owns neither: its provisional captain is Thiago at 5.95, narrowly above Calvert-Lewin 5.90, Bruno 5.86 and Palmer 5.84. Treat that cluster as close, not decisive.

## Buying Haaland was evaluated

Bruno, Gibbs-White and Thiago to Groß, Tavernier and Haaland uses all three transfers and all the assumed cash. The full portfolio gains 6.31 expected points immediately but 3.11 over five discounted weeks. A cautious minutes scenario reduces the immediate gain to 2.13. The tested route that buys both Haaland and Saka is £0.3m short. These are conditional website-roster calculations, not verified account affordability.

## The armband does not settle the transfer plan

A higher individual projection does not establish that buying that player is the best multiweek use of three transfers. The comparison excludes saved-transfer option value, adaptive future moves and conditional vice-captain fallback. No chip is recommended provisionally; actual chip availability is unknown. Confirm Friday news before the 17 October 10:00 UTC deadline.

**Bottom line:** 

## The data

| # | Player | Team | Captain EV | xPts | Ceiling | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haaland | MCI | 17.26 | 8.63 | 18.55 | 15.6 | 75.2% |
| 2 | Saka | ARS | 14.04 | 7.02 | 16.71 | 9.6 | 16.7% |
| 3 | Gonzalo | FUL | 12.88 | 6.44 | 14.79 | 6.1 | 7.2% |
| 4 | Thiago | BRE | 11.90 | 5.95 | 14.35 | 7.8 | 9.2% |
| 5 | Calvert-Lewin | LEE | 11.80 | 5.90 | 14.18 | 6.0 | 22.6% |
| 6 | B.Fernandes | MUN | 11.72 | 5.86 | 14.59 | 11.9 | 34.6% |
| 7 | Cole Palmer | CHE | 11.68 | 5.84 | 14.82 | 9.7 | 25.3% |
| 8 | Groß | BHA | 11.38 | 5.69 | 14.49 | 6.0 | 39.5% |
| 9 | Cherki | MCI | 10.76 | 5.38 | 13.76 | 7.9 | 31.9% |
| 10 | De Cuyper | BHA | 10.74 | 5.37 | 13.69 | 5.1 | 35.4% |
| 11 | Tavernier | BOU | 10.47 | 5.24 | 13.01 | 6.1 | 7.3% |
| 12 | Wirtz | LIV | 10.33 | 5.17 | 13.12 | 7.3 | 5.2% |
| 13 | Barry | EVE | 10.29 | 5.15 | 12.99 | 5.7 | 8.7% |
| 14 | Van Hecke | TOT | 10.19 | 5.10 | 12.23 | 4.9 | 6.3% |
| 15 | Sávio | TOT | 9.65 | 4.82 | 13.62 | 6.5 | 0.7% |
| 16 | Mbeumo | MUN | 9.61 | 4.81 | 12.72 | 7.9 | 19.9% |
| 17 | Gabriel | ARS | 9.57 | 4.79 | 10.84 | 7.9 | 21.8% |
| 18 | Silva | BOU | 9.50 | 4.75 | 11.43 | 5.0 | 0.6% |
| 19 | Calafiori | ARS | 9.21 | 4.61 | 11.49 | 5.9 | 52.3% |
| 20 | Havertz | ARS | 9.15 | 4.58 | 11.66 | 7.5 | 6.6% |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw7/captains.json