# The Consensus XI: gameweek 5 comparator

> The recorded comparator squad — Haaland captains, João Pedro is vice.

By the evmax model · 17 September 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw5/consensus-squad/

Rebuilt for gameweek 2 as the most-owned legal template: top selected_by_percent per position from the official bootstrap, greedily legalised under budget, quota and club cap; captain = highest-owned premium (>= 10.0m), vice next. This rebuild is the squad's declared Wildcard; the GW1 expert mention-tally method is retired. GW1 is graded as published.This is the held comparator roster, not a fresh poll of expert teams. Both squads use the same forecast model for expected points and minutes. Their realized score gap combines player selection, captaincy, chips and football variance; it does not isolate information quality.The 3-4-3 XI projects 44.68 points, 52.70 with the captain doubled.

Method description corrected 2026-10-13. Original forecast numbers, squad and archived prose remain unchanged.

**Bottom line:** Comparator: 3-4-3, Haaland (c) — 52.70 projected on our model's numbers.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | xPts | Ceiling | Captain EV | Pts/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raya | ARS | 3.62 | 8.59 | 7.23 | 0.60 |
| 2 | Calafiori | ARS | 4.12 | 10.65 | 8.23 | 0.71 |
| 3 | O'Reilly | MCI | 2.07 | 8.65 | 4.13 | 0.32 |
| 4 | Shaw | MUN | 1.70 | 7.34 | 3.41 | 0.39 |
| 5 | Szoboszlai | LIV | 4.46 | 12.71 | 8.93 | 0.64 |
| 6 | Mbeumo | MUN | 5.10 | 13.75 | 10.20 | 0.65 |
| 7 | Tzolis | ARS | 2.37 | 7.27 | 4.74 | 0.37 |
| 8 | Rogers | CHE | 3.89 | 10.53 | 7.77 | 0.51 |
| 9 | Haaland | MCI | 8.02 | 17.06 | 16.05 | 0.52 |
| 10 | João Pedro | CHE | 3.07 | 10.98 | 6.15 | 0.39 |
| 11 | Calvert-Lewin | LEE | 6.26 | 14.78 | 12.52 | 1.04 |
| 12 | Kinsky | TOT | 3.37 | 8.88 | 6.74 | 0.75 |
| 13 | Guéhi | MCI | 4.90 | 11.45 | 9.81 | 0.82 |
| 14 | Diop | IPS | 2.65 | 8.43 | 5.31 | 0.66 |
| 15 | Slater | HUL | 2.64 | 7.06 | 5.28 | 0.59 |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw5/consensus-squad.json