# The Consensus XI: gameweek 4 comparator

> The recorded comparator squad — Haaland captains, João Pedro is vice.

By the evmax model · 12 September 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw4/consensus-squad/

Rebuilt for gameweek 2 as the most-owned legal template: top selected_by_percent per position from the official bootstrap, greedily legalised under budget, quota and club cap; captain = highest-owned premium (>= 10.0m), vice next. This rebuild is the squad's declared Wildcard; the GW1 expert mention-tally method is retired. GW1 is graded as published.This is the held comparator roster, not a fresh poll of expert teams. Both squads use the same forecast model for expected points and minutes. Their realized score gap combines player selection, captaincy, chips and football variance; it does not isolate information quality.The 3-4-3 XI projects 47.40 points, 53.57 with the captain doubled.

Method description corrected 2026-10-13. Original forecast numbers, squad and archived prose remain unchanged.

**Bottom line:** Comparator: 3-4-3, Haaland (c) — 53.57 projected on our model's numbers.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | xPts | Ceiling | Captain EV | Pts/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raya | ARS | 4.28 | 8.80 | 8.56 | 0.71 |
| 2 | Calafiori | ARS | 4.54 | 11.48 | 9.07 | 0.78 |
| 3 | O'Reilly | MCI | 1.97 | 7.89 | 3.94 | 0.31 |
| 4 | Shaw | MUN | 2.30 | 7.68 | 4.61 | 0.52 |
| 5 | Szoboszlai | LIV | 5.77 | 14.81 | 11.54 | 0.82 |
| 6 | Mbeumo | MUN | 4.29 | 12.10 | 8.59 | 0.54 |
| 7 | Tzolis | ARS | 2.41 | 7.54 | 4.83 | 0.38 |
| 8 | Rogers | CHE | 4.66 | 12.08 | 9.31 | 0.61 |
| 9 | Haaland | MCI | 6.17 | 14.77 | 12.33 | 0.40 |
| 10 | João Pedro | CHE | 5.87 | 14.48 | 11.75 | 0.76 |
| 11 | Calvert-Lewin | LEE | 5.14 | 13.71 | 10.28 | 0.86 |
| 12 | Kinsky | TOT | 3.29 | 8.77 | 6.57 | 0.73 |
| 13 | Guéhi | MCI | 3.19 | 9.39 | 6.38 | 0.53 |
| 14 | Diop | IPS | 2.74 | 8.61 | 5.48 | 0.69 |
| 15 | Slater | HUL | 2.10 | 5.61 | 4.20 | 0.47 |

---
Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw4/consensus-squad.json