# The Consensus XI: gameweek 3 comparator

> The recorded comparator squad — Haaland captains, João Pedro is vice.

By the evmax model · 3 September 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw3/consensus-squad/

Rebuilt for gameweek 2 as the most-owned legal template from official ownership, greedily legalised under budget, position quotas and club cap; captain was the highest-owned premium. The GW1 expert mention-tally method was retired. Later weeks carry the held roster.This is the held comparator roster, not a fresh poll of expert teams. Both squads use the same forecast model for expected points and minutes. Their realized score gap combines player selection, captaincy, chips and football variance; it does not isolate information quality.The 3-4-3 XI projects 45.10 points, 53.68 with the captain doubled.

Method description corrected 2026-10-13. Original forecast numbers, squad and archived prose remain unchanged.

**Bottom line:** Comparator: 3-4-3, Haaland (c) — 53.68 projected on our model's numbers.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | xPts | Ceiling | Captain EV | Pts/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raya | ARS | 3.34 | 6.68 | 6.67 | 0.56 |
| 2 | Calafiori | ARS | 3.79 | 10.77 | 7.58 | 0.68 |
| 3 | O'Reilly | MCI | 4.17 | 11.36 | 8.34 | 0.64 |
| 4 | Shaw | MUN | 2.49 | 6.94 | 4.99 | 0.55 |
| 5 | Szoboszlai | LIV | 6.66 | 16.78 | 13.32 | 0.95 |
| 6 | Mbeumo | MUN | 4.45 | 13.02 | 8.90 | 0.56 |
| 7 | Tzolis | ARS | 1.62 | 6.46 | 3.23 | 0.25 |
| 8 | Rogers | CHE | 2.70 | 8.10 | 5.39 | 0.36 |
| 9 | Haaland | MCI | 8.58 | 19.33 | 17.16 | 0.55 |
| 10 | João Pedro | CHE | 3.50 | 10.05 | 7.00 | 0.46 |
| 11 | Calvert-Lewin | LEE | 3.80 | 11.19 | 7.61 | 0.63 |
| 12 | Kinsky | TOT | 2.86 | 6.92 | 5.72 | 0.64 |
| 13 | Guéhi | MCI | 4.41 | 10.98 | 8.81 | 0.73 |
| 14 | Diop | IPS | 2.05 | 6.93 | 4.09 | 0.51 |
| 15 | Slater | HUL | 2.53 | 7.36 | 5.06 | 0.56 |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw3/consensus-squad.json