# Thiaw is the gameweek 2 DefCon banker

> He clears the 10-action threshold in 74% of simulations.

By the evmax model · 28 August 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw2/defcon/

Thiaw (NEW) records at least 10 defensive actions in 74% of our simulations, worth 1.48 on its own. Defensive contribution is a threshold, not a rate: a player either clears the count in a given match or earns nothing, which is why we quote the hit rate rather than an average.Neto is next at 74% against a 12-action threshold.

**Bottom line:** Thiaw is the most reliable route to the 2-point defensive bonus — 74% of simulations.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | P(DefCon) | DefCon pts | xPts | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiaw | NEW | 74% | 1.48 | 4.13 | 5.0 | 1.7% |
| 2 | Neto | CHE | 74% | 1.47 | 4.97 | 6.5 | 1.3% |
| 3 | Yarmoliuk | BRE | 73% | 1.46 | 3.08 | 5.0 | 1.2% |
| 4 | Richards | CRY | 73% | 1.45 | 3.17 | 5.0 | 0.7% |
| 5 | Dalot | MUN | 72% | 1.44 | 6.03 | 5.0 | 2.5% |
| 6 | Lacroix | CHE | 59% | 1.19 | 3.85 | 6.0 | 9.5% |
| 7 | Damsgaard | BRE | 59% | 1.18 | 3.45 | 5.5 | 0.5% |
| 8 | Virgil | LIV | 56% | 1.12 | 4.97 | 6.5 | 19.6% |
| 9 | Stach | LEE | 55% | 1.10 | 3.76 | 6.0 | 2.0% |
| 10 | Senesi | TOT | 55% | 1.10 | 3.09 | 6.0 | 7.8% |
| 11 | Murillo | NFO | 52% | 1.04 | 2.22 | 5.5 | 1.7% |
| 12 | M.Sangaré | BRE | 52% | 1.04 | 4.74 | 5.6 | 7.5% |
| 13 | Egan | HUL | 51% | 1.02 | 2.72 | 4.0 | 2.0% |
| 14 | Ampadu | LEE | 49% | 0.99 | 3.11 | 5.5 | 1.4% |
| 15 | O'Shea | IPS | 49% | 0.99 | 1.94 | 4.0 | 3.4% |
| 16 | Wharton | CRY | 48% | 0.96 | 3.17 | 5.5 | 0.9% |
| 17 | Brennan Johnson | EVE | 48% | 0.95 | 2.71 | 6.0 | 0.2% |
| 18 | Xhaka | SUN | 46% | 0.93 | 4.10 | 5.5 | 4.6% |
| 19 | Gravenberch | LIV | 46% | 0.91 | 3.89 | 6.0 | 2.0% |
| 20 | Adams | BOU | 45% | 0.91 | 2.12 | 5.0 | 0.2% |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw2/defcon.json