# Clean sheets start at the Emirates

> Arsenal's 56.8% shutout probability towers over the week — no other defence clears 50%.

By the evmax model · 21 August 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw1/ticker/

The market prices one defensive banker this week: Arsenal, at home to newly promoted Coventry, with a 56.8% clean-sheet probability and 2.56 expected goals scored against 0.56 conceded. That combination — a shutout better than a coin flip plus genuine goal threat from set pieces — is why Arsenal defenders dominate every defensive list we publish this week.

Manchester United away at Hull are the surprising second: 45.4% to keep Hull out entirely, with 2.17 expected goals at the other end. Manchester City (31.9% against Bournemouth) rank only third — the market expects City to score 2.35 but concedes Bournemouth real scoring chances at 1.14 expected goals, which caps the shutout odds. Everton (31.3% at home to Palace) are the budget-defence angle.

> Every row this week is priced from live market data — no model fallbacks, no guesswork flags.

At the bottom, COV (7.9%) and BOU (9.6%) are the defences to avoid entirely — and, read in reverse, the fixtures whose opposing attackers get a quiet boost.

Looking past this week, the strongest opening-six runs belong to Arsenal, Man City,
Man Utd and Liverpool; Ipswich, Bournemouth, Coventry and Hull carry the worst.
Gameweek 1 is priced from live market odds; the following weeks use fixture-difficulty
priors calibrated against them, and each week's real prices replace the prior as it
arrives.

**Bottom line:** Arsenal at 56.8% are the week's only true clean-sheet banker; pay for their defenders or don't pay for defence at all.

**Bottom line:** Arsenal at 56.8% are the week's only true clean-sheet banker; pay for their defenders or don't pay for defence at all.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | Clean sheets | xGF | xGA | Fixtures | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARS | COV (H) | 0.57 | 2.56 | 0.56 | 1 | market |
| 2 | MUN | HUL (A) | 0.45 | 2.17 | 0.79 | 1 | market |
| 3 | MCI | BOU (H) | 0.32 | 2.35 | 1.14 | 1 | market |
| 4 | EVE | CRY (H) | 0.31 | 1.48 | 1.16 | 1 | market |
| 5 | NFO | LEE (H) | 0.30 | 1.45 | 1.21 | 1 | market |
| 6 | CHE | FUL (A) | 0.29 | 1.77 | 1.25 | 1 | market |
| 7 | SUN | IPS (A) | 0.28 | 1.33 | 1.28 | 1 | market |
| 8 | IPS | SUN (H) | 0.27 | 1.28 | 1.33 | 1 | market |
| 9 | BHA | AVL (H) | 0.26 | 1.64 | 1.35 | 1 | market |
| 10 | BRE | TOT (H) | 0.24 | 1.51 | 1.43 | 1 | market |
| 11 | LEE | NFO (A) | 0.24 | 1.21 | 1.45 | 1 | market |
| 12 | LIV | NEW (A) | 0.24 | 1.95 | 1.44 | 1 | market |
| 13 | CRY | EVE (A) | 0.23 | 1.16 | 1.48 | 1 | market |
| 14 | TOT | BRE (A) | 0.22 | 1.43 | 1.51 | 1 | market |
| 15 | AVL | BHA (A) | 0.19 | 1.35 | 1.64 | 1 | market |
| 16 | FUL | CHE (H) | 0.17 | 1.25 | 1.77 | 1 | market |
| 17 | NEW | LIV (H) | 0.14 | 1.44 | 1.95 | 1 | market |
| 18 | HUL | MUN (H) | 0.11 | 0.79 | 2.17 | 1 | market |
| 19 | BOU | MCI (A) | 0.10 | 1.14 | 2.35 | 1 | market |
| 20 | COV | ARS (A) | 0.08 | 0.56 | 2.56 | 1 | market |

---
Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw1/ticker.json