# Value lives in defence this week — Calafiori is the whole market's best buy

> 0.931 points per million at £5.5m: no player at any price converts budget into projection better.

By the evmax model · 21 August 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw1/efficiency/

Points per million is a lens, not a verdict — but this week the lens is unambiguous. Calafiori's 5.12 expected points at £5.5m yield 0.931 points per million, the best figure in the game. In the budget tier, Shaw (3.98 at £4.5m, 0.884 per million) and N.Williams (4.1, 0.82) lead; Diop at £4.0m (0.807 per million) is the enabler that actually projects points.

In midfield, Ndiaye is the mid-tier standout — 5.13 expected points at £6.0m, 0.856 per million — with Le Fée (4.79, 0.799 per million at just 9.9% ownership) the differential version of the same trade.

> One warning about this whole page: efficiency is how you pick your sixth through fifteenth player, not your first.

At the top of the price list the lens inverts. B.Fernandes returns 0.737 points per million — respectable — while Haaland returns 0.503, the price of his ceiling and his fixture insurance. Premium slots are bought for raw points and captaincy leverage; nobody ever won their league on a striker's value ratio. Spend the efficiency budget where it belongs: everywhere else.

**Bottom line:** Calafiori (0.931 points per million) and Ndiaye (0.856) are the two purchases this page exists to recommend; treat premium value ratios as trivia.

**Bottom line:** Calafiori (0.931 points per million) and Ndiaye (0.856) are the two purchases this page exists to recommend; treat premium value ratios as trivia.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | Pts/m | xPts | Price | Owned % | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calafiori | ARS | 0.93 | 5.12 | 5.5 | 13.8% | 13.88 |
| 2 | Shaw | MUN | 0.88 | 3.98 | 4.5 | 23.3% | 7.99 |
| 3 | Ndiaye | EVE | 0.86 | 5.13 | 6.0 | 20.0% | 15.04 |
| 4 | N.Williams | NFO | 0.82 | 4.10 | 5.0 | 13.3% | 10.80 |
| 5 | Diop | IPS | 0.81 | 3.23 | 4.0 | 20.8% | 10.28 |
| 6 | E.Le Fée | SUN | 0.80 | 4.79 | 6.0 | 9.9% | 13.02 |
| 7 | Mosquera | ARS | 0.79 | 4.36 | 5.5 | 17.3% | 9.36 |
| 8 | Tarkowski | EVE | 0.78 | 4.67 | 6.0 | 9.9% | 11.16 |
| 9 | Raya | ARS | 0.77 | 4.63 | 6.0 | 30.2% | 8.17 |
| 10 | Verbruggen | BHA | 0.74 | 3.34 | 4.5 | 16.8% | 8.04 |
| 11 | B.Fernandes | MUN | 0.74 | 8.85 | 12.0 | 48.7% | 19.70 |
| 12 | Thiago | BRE | 0.74 | 5.89 | 8.0 | 16.0% | 14.16 |
| 13 | Welbeck | BHA | 0.73 | 4.38 | 6.0 | 2.9% | 13.52 |
| 14 | Van Hecke | TOT | 0.73 | 3.63 | 5.0 | 8.2% | 10.17 |
| 15 | Senesi | TOT | 0.72 | 4.35 | 6.0 | 11.3% | 10.55 |
| 16 | Hume | SUN | 0.72 | 3.24 | 4.5 | 1.4% | 9.10 |
| 17 | Dalot | MUN | 0.70 | 3.53 | 5.0 | 3.2% | 9.65 |
| 18 | Roefs | SUN | 0.70 | 3.50 | 5.0 | 5.7% | 8.73 |
| 19 | Lammens | MUN | 0.69 | 3.46 | 5.0 | 19.9% | 7.64 |
| 20 | Dubravka | TOT | 0.69 | 2.74 | 4.0 | 24.8% | 6.86 |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw1/efficiency.json