# Gabriel tops a defensive board Arsenal own

> Four of the six best defensive picks this week face Coventry — the question is only which Arsenal asset to buy.

By the evmax model · 21 August 2026 · https://evmax.ai/fpl/gw1/defenders/

Gabriel leads every defender and goalkeeper at 5.32 expected points: 1.78 of it from clean-sheet scenarios, a 27.7% chance of the defensive-contribution bonus, and the set-piece goal threat that gives him a 12.92 ceiling — the average of his best 15% of simulations. At £8.0m and 25.4% ownership he is the premium pick that actually justifies the word.

The cheaper Arsenal routes are almost as good. Calafiori projects 5.12 at £5.5m — 0.931 points per million, the best value of any player in the game this week — and Mosquera 4.36 at the same price. Raya is the top goalkeeper at 4.63, with 2.2 expected points from shutout scenarios alone. All four are priced off the same 56.8% clean-sheet probability against Coventry.

> Outside the Emirates, the floor plays are Everton and Tottenham: Tarkowski and Senesi bank defensive-contribution points even when the clean sheet dies.

Tarkowski projects 4.67 with a 45.7% defensive-contribution probability — the classic two-route defender who scores from a shutout or from sheer defensive volume. Senesi (4.35) carries the highest defensive-contribution probability of any defender this week at 58.4%, which gives him a real floor even away at Brentford.

**Bottom line:** Gabriel at 5.32 is the week's best defensive buy; Calafiori at 0.931 points per million is its best bargain. Both outcomes hinge on the same Coventry fixture — diversify only if you already own two Arsenal assets.

**Bottom line:** Gabriel at 5.32 is the week's best defensive buy; Calafiori at 0.931 points per million is its best bargain. Both outcomes hinge on the same Coventry fixture — diversify only if you already own two Arsenal assets.

## The data

| # | Player | Team | xPts | CS pts | DefCon pts | Bonus | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriel | ARS | 5.32 | 1.78 | 0.55 | 0.97 | 8.0 |
| 2 | Calafiori | ARS | 5.12 | 1.78 | 0.06 | 0.53 | 5.5 |
| 3 | Tarkowski | EVE | 4.67 | 1.21 | 0.91 | 0.37 | 6.0 |
| 4 | Raya | ARS | 4.63 | 2.20 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 6.0 |
| 5 | Mosquera | ARS | 4.36 | 1.91 | 0.49 | 0.22 | 5.5 |
| 6 | Senesi | TOT | 4.35 | 0.85 | 1.17 | 0.23 | 6.0 |
| 7 | Virgil | LIV | 4.28 | 0.94 | 0.74 | 0.22 | 6.5 |
| 8 | N.Williams | NFO | 4.10 | 1.12 | 0.26 | 0.39 | 5.0 |
| 9 | Shaw | MUN | 3.98 | 1.78 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 4.5 |
| 10 | Mukiele | SUN | 3.71 | 0.93 | 0.51 | 0.44 | 5.5 |
| 11 | Pickford | EVE | 3.70 | 1.24 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 5.5 |
| 12 | Van Hecke | TOT | 3.63 | 0.83 | 0.61 | 0.22 | 5.0 |
| 13 | Dalot | MUN | 3.53 | 1.38 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 5.0 |
| 14 | Roefs | SUN | 3.50 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 5.0 |
| 15 | Lammens | MUN | 3.46 | 1.52 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 5.0 |
| 16 | Lacroix | CRY | 3.38 | 0.82 | 0.96 | 0.15 | 6.0 |
| 17 | Keane | EVE | 3.36 | 0.94 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5.0 |
| 18 | Alderete | SUN | 3.34 | 0.93 | 0.72 | 0.14 | 5.0 |
| 19 | Verbruggen | BHA | 3.34 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 4.5 |
| 20 | Milenković | NFO | 3.30 | 1.15 | 0.52 | 0.04 | 5.5 |

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Method: Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.
Data license: CC BY 4.0 (attribution: evmax, https://evmax.ai). Machine-readable JSON: https://evmax.ai/api/fpl/gw1/defenders.json