{
  "competition": "fifa_world_cup_fantasy",
  "round": 5,
  "article": "matches",
  "title": "Match predictions & games to watch — Round 5",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-03T13:38:41.827646+00:00",
  "sims": 50000,
  "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.",
  "entries": [
    {
      "match": "Canada vs Morocco",
      "home": "Canada",
      "away": "Morocco",
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T17:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 0.82,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.54,
      "exp_total": 2.36,
      "top_scoreline": "0-1",
      "p_home": 0.2,
      "p_draw": 0.26,
      "p_away": 0.54,
      "close": false,
      "p_advance_home": 0.289,
      "p_advance_away": 0.711
    },
    {
      "match": "Paraguay vs France",
      "home": "Paraguay",
      "away": "France",
      "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 0.48,
      "exp_away_goals": 2.45,
      "exp_total": 2.94,
      "top_scoreline": "0-2",
      "p_home": 0.06,
      "p_draw": 0.14,
      "p_away": 0.81,
      "close": false,
      "p_advance_home": 0.077,
      "p_advance_away": 0.923
    },
    {
      "match": "Brazil vs Norway",
      "home": "Brazil",
      "away": "Norway",
      "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.75,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.12,
      "exp_total": 2.87,
      "top_scoreline": "1-1",
      "p_home": 0.52,
      "p_draw": 0.23,
      "p_away": 0.24,
      "close": false,
      "p_advance_home": 0.667,
      "p_advance_away": 0.333
    },
    {
      "match": "Mexico vs England",
      "home": "Mexico",
      "away": "England",
      "kickoff": "2026-07-06T00:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.03,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.24,
      "exp_total": 2.27,
      "top_scoreline": "1-1",
      "p_home": 0.31,
      "p_draw": 0.28,
      "p_away": 0.41,
      "close": true,
      "p_advance_home": 0.435,
      "p_advance_away": 0.565
    },
    {
      "match": "Portugal vs Spain",
      "home": "Portugal",
      "away": "Spain",
      "kickoff": "2026-07-06T19:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.06,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.61,
      "exp_total": 2.68,
      "top_scoreline": "1-1",
      "p_home": 0.25,
      "p_draw": 0.25,
      "p_away": 0.5,
      "close": false,
      "p_advance_home": 0.351,
      "p_advance_away": 0.649
    },
    {
      "match": "United States vs Belgium",
      "home": "United States",
      "away": "Belgium",
      "kickoff": "2026-07-07T00:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.45,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.38,
      "exp_total": 2.83,
      "top_scoreline": "1-1",
      "p_home": 0.39,
      "p_draw": 0.25,
      "p_away": 0.36,
      "close": true,
      "p_advance_home": 0.521,
      "p_advance_away": 0.479
    },
    {
      "match": "Round of 32 14 Winner vs Round of 32 16 Winner",
      "home": "Round of 32 14 Winner",
      "away": "Round of 32 16 Winner",
      "kickoff": "2026-07-07T16:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.35,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.35,
      "exp_total": 2.69,
      "top_scoreline": "1-1",
      "p_home": 0.37,
      "p_draw": 0.26,
      "p_away": 0.37,
      "close": true,
      "p_advance_home": 0.499,
      "p_advance_away": 0.501
    },
    {
      "match": "Switzerland vs Round of 32 15 Winner",
      "home": "Switzerland",
      "away": "Round of 32 15 Winner",
      "kickoff": "2026-07-07T20:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.36,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.35,
      "exp_total": 2.7,
      "top_scoreline": "1-1",
      "p_home": 0.37,
      "p_draw": 0.26,
      "p_away": 0.37,
      "close": true,
      "p_advance_home": 0.5,
      "p_advance_away": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "source": "https://evmax.ai",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)"
}