{ "competition": "fifa_world_cup_fantasy", "round": 5, "article": "captains", "title": "Best captain picks — Round 5", "generated_at": "2026-07-03T13:38:41.827646+00:00", "sims": 50000, "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.", "entries": [ { "name": "Mbappé", "team": "France", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 6.14, "captain_ev": 12.29, "ceiling": 12.95, "ceiling_ratio": 2.108, "price": 10.5, "ownership_pct": 59.2, "value": 0.585, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 1 }, { "name": "Ismael Saibari", "team": "Morocco", "position": "MID", "x_points": 5.54, "captain_ev": 11.08, "ceiling": 9.06, "ceiling_ratio": 1.635, "price": 6.8, "ownership_pct": 14.9, "value": 0.815, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T17:00:00+00:00", "rank": 2 }, { "name": "Mike Maignan", "team": "France", "position": "GK", "x_points": 5.16, "captain_ev": 10.32, "ceiling": 5.16, "ceiling_ratio": 1.0, "price": 5, "ownership_pct": 8.9, "value": 1.032, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 3 }, { "name": "Dayot Upamecano", "team": "France", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 5.16, "captain_ev": 10.31, "ceiling": 4.74, "ceiling_ratio": 0.919, "price": 5.3, "ownership_pct": 4.9, "value": 0.973, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 4 }, { "name": "Raphinha", "team": "Brazil", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.98, "captain_ev": 9.96, "ceiling": 9.5, "ceiling_ratio": 1.907, "price": 8.2, "ownership_pct": 10.3, "value": 0.607, "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00", "rank": 5 }, { "name": "Achraf Hakimi", "team": "Morocco", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 4.93, "captain_ev": 9.86, "ceiling": 4.04, "ceiling_ratio": 0.821, "price": 6, "ownership_pct": 28, "value": 0.821, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T17:00:00+00:00", "rank": 6 }, { "name": "E. Haaland", "team": "Norway", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 4.87, "captain_ev": 9.75, "ceiling": 7.62, "ceiling_ratio": 1.563, "price": 10.5, "ownership_pct": 28.6, "value": 0.464, "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00", "rank": 7 }, { "name": "Vinicius Jr", "team": "Brazil", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.87, "captain_ev": 9.74, "ceiling": 7.73, "ceiling_ratio": 1.587, "price": 10, "ownership_pct": 34.5, "value": 0.487, "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00", "rank": 8 }, { "name": "Michael Olise", "team": "France", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.86, "captain_ev": 9.72, "ceiling": 7.9, "ceiling_ratio": 1.625, "price": 9.5, "ownership_pct": 34.1, "value": 0.512, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 9 }, { "name": "Kane", "team": "England", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 4.84, "captain_ev": 9.68, "ceiling": 7.73, "ceiling_ratio": 1.598, "price": 10.5, "ownership_pct": 40.6, "value": 0.461, "kickoff": "2026-07-06T00:00:00+00:00", "rank": 10 }, { "name": "Jules Kounde", "team": "France", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 4.83, "captain_ev": 9.66, "ceiling": 4.7, "ceiling_ratio": 0.973, "price": 5.4, "ownership_pct": 6.3, "value": 0.894, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 11 }, { "name": "Matheus Cunha", "team": "Brazil", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 4.81, "captain_ev": 9.63, "ceiling": 8.09, "ceiling_ratio": 1.682, "price": 7.3, "ownership_pct": 4.4, "value": 0.659, "kickoff": "2026-07-05T20:00:00+00:00", "rank": 12 }, { "name": "Bruno Fernandes", "team": "Portugal", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.72, "captain_ev": 9.43, "ceiling": 9.33, "ceiling_ratio": 1.978, "price": 8.5, "ownership_pct": 34.9, "value": 0.555, "kickoff": "2026-07-06T19:00:00+00:00", "rank": 13 }, { "name": "Folarin Balogun", "team": "United States", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 4.69, "captain_ev": 9.38, "ceiling": 8.22, "ceiling_ratio": 1.754, "price": 6, "ownership_pct": 3.9, "value": 0.781, "kickoff": "2026-07-07T00:00:00+00:00", "rank": 14 }, { "name": "Jonathan David", "team": "Canada", "position": "FWD", "x_points": 4.62, "captain_ev": 9.24, "ceiling": 8.39, "ceiling_ratio": 1.815, "price": 7, "ownership_pct": 2.4, "value": 0.66, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T17:00:00+00:00", "rank": 15 }, { "name": "William Saliba", "team": "France", "position": "DEF", "x_points": 4.61, "captain_ev": 9.21, "ceiling": 4.31, "ceiling_ratio": 0.936, "price": 5.3, "ownership_pct": 13, "value": 0.869, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 16 }, { "name": "Ousmane Dembele", "team": "France", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.49, "captain_ev": 8.98, "ceiling": 9.56, "ceiling_ratio": 2.128, "price": 10, "ownership_pct": 22.9, "value": 0.449, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 17 }, { "name": "Christian Pulisic", "team": "United States", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.43, "captain_ev": 8.85, "ceiling": 9.04, "ceiling_ratio": 2.043, "price": 7, "ownership_pct": 4.5, "value": 0.632, "kickoff": "2026-07-07T00:00:00+00:00", "rank": 18 }, { "name": "Bradley Barcola", "team": "France", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.42, "captain_ev": 8.84, "ceiling": 8.48, "ceiling_ratio": 1.918, "price": 8, "ownership_pct": 1.5, "value": 0.553, "kickoff": "2026-07-04T21:00:00+00:00", "rank": 19 }, { "name": "Nico Williams", "team": "Spain", "position": "MID", "x_points": 4.31, "captain_ev": 8.63, "ceiling": 9.09, "ceiling_ratio": 2.107, "price": 7.8, "ownership_pct": 1.9, "value": 0.553, "kickoff": "2026-07-06T19:00:00+00:00", "rank": 20 } ], "source": "https://evmax.ai", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)" }