{
  "competition": "fifa_world_cup_fantasy",
  "round": 3,
  "article": "matches",
  "title": "Match predictions & games to watch — Round 3",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T13:03:53.613308+00:00",
  "sims": 50000,
  "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.",
  "entries": [
    {
      "match": "Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Qatar",
      "home": "Bosnia-Herzegovina",
      "away": "Qatar",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-24T19:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 2.25,
      "exp_away_goals": 0.87,
      "exp_total": 3.11,
      "top_scoreline": "2-0",
      "p_home": 0.69,
      "p_draw": 0.19,
      "p_away": 0.13,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Switzerland vs Canada",
      "home": "Switzerland",
      "away": "Canada",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-24T19:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.37,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.14,
      "exp_total": 2.51,
      "top_scoreline": "1-1",
      "p_home": 0.42,
      "p_draw": 0.27,
      "p_away": 0.31,
      "close": true
    },
    {
      "match": "Morocco vs Haiti",
      "home": "Morocco",
      "away": "Haiti",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-24T22:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 2.59,
      "exp_away_goals": 0.57,
      "exp_total": 3.17,
      "top_scoreline": "2-0",
      "p_home": 0.81,
      "p_draw": 0.13,
      "p_away": 0.06,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Scotland vs Brazil",
      "home": "Scotland",
      "away": "Brazil",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-24T22:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 0.65,
      "exp_away_goals": 2.13,
      "exp_total": 2.78,
      "top_scoreline": "0-2",
      "p_home": 0.1,
      "p_draw": 0.18,
      "p_away": 0.72,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Czechia vs Mexico",
      "home": "Czechia",
      "away": "Mexico",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-25T01:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.06,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.54,
      "exp_total": 2.61,
      "top_scoreline": "1-1",
      "p_home": 0.26,
      "p_draw": 0.25,
      "p_away": 0.49,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "South Africa vs South Korea",
      "home": "South Africa",
      "away": "South Korea",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-25T01:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 0.85,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.72,
      "exp_total": 2.57,
      "top_scoreline": "0-1",
      "p_home": 0.18,
      "p_draw": 0.23,
      "p_away": 0.58,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Curaçao vs Ivory Coast",
      "home": "Curaçao",
      "away": "Ivory Coast",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-25T20:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 0.55,
      "exp_away_goals": 2.73,
      "exp_total": 3.27,
      "top_scoreline": "0-2",
      "p_home": 0.05,
      "p_draw": 0.12,
      "p_away": 0.83,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Ecuador vs Germany",
      "home": "Ecuador",
      "away": "Germany",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-25T20:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.14,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.72,
      "exp_total": 2.86,
      "top_scoreline": "1-1",
      "p_home": 0.25,
      "p_draw": 0.24,
      "p_away": 0.51,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Japan vs Sweden",
      "home": "Japan",
      "away": "Sweden",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-25T23:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.72,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.09,
      "exp_total": 2.82,
      "top_scoreline": "1-1",
      "p_home": 0.52,
      "p_draw": 0.24,
      "p_away": 0.24,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Tunisia vs Netherlands",
      "home": "Tunisia",
      "away": "Netherlands",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-25T23:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 0.54,
      "exp_away_goals": 2.85,
      "exp_total": 3.39,
      "top_scoreline": "0-2",
      "p_home": 0.04,
      "p_draw": 0.11,
      "p_away": 0.85,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Paraguay vs Australia",
      "home": "Paraguay",
      "away": "Australia",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-26T02:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 0.94,
      "exp_away_goals": 0.81,
      "exp_total": 1.75,
      "top_scoreline": "0-0",
      "p_home": 0.37,
      "p_draw": 0.33,
      "p_away": 0.3,
      "close": true
    },
    {
      "match": "Türkiye vs United States",
      "home": "Türkiye",
      "away": "United States",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-26T02:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.19,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.67,
      "exp_total": 2.85,
      "top_scoreline": "1-1",
      "p_home": 0.27,
      "p_draw": 0.24,
      "p_away": 0.49,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Norway vs France",
      "home": "Norway",
      "away": "France",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-26T19:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.06,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.89,
      "exp_total": 2.94,
      "top_scoreline": "1-1",
      "p_home": 0.21,
      "p_draw": 0.22,
      "p_away": 0.57,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Senegal vs Iraq",
      "home": "Senegal",
      "away": "Iraq",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-26T19:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 2.55,
      "exp_away_goals": 0.68,
      "exp_total": 3.23,
      "top_scoreline": "2-0",
      "p_home": 0.78,
      "p_draw": 0.14,
      "p_away": 0.08,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia",
      "home": "Cape Verde",
      "away": "Saudi Arabia",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-27T00:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.35,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.23,
      "exp_total": 2.58,
      "top_scoreline": "1-1",
      "p_home": 0.39,
      "p_draw": 0.26,
      "p_away": 0.34,
      "close": true
    },
    {
      "match": "Uruguay vs Spain",
      "home": "Uruguay",
      "away": "Spain",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-27T00:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 0.8,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.95,
      "exp_total": 2.75,
      "top_scoreline": "0-1",
      "p_home": 0.15,
      "p_draw": 0.21,
      "p_away": 0.65,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Egypt vs Iran",
      "home": "Egypt",
      "away": "Iran",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-27T03:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.09,
      "exp_away_goals": 0.85,
      "exp_total": 1.94,
      "top_scoreline": "1-0",
      "p_home": 0.41,
      "p_draw": 0.31,
      "p_away": 0.28,
      "close": true
    },
    {
      "match": "New Zealand vs Belgium",
      "home": "New Zealand",
      "away": "Belgium",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-27T03:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 0.6,
      "exp_away_goals": 2.63,
      "exp_total": 3.23,
      "top_scoreline": "0-2",
      "p_home": 0.06,
      "p_draw": 0.13,
      "p_away": 0.81,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Croatia vs Ghana",
      "home": "Croatia",
      "away": "Ghana",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-27T21:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.61,
      "exp_away_goals": 0.79,
      "exp_total": 2.4,
      "top_scoreline": "1-0",
      "p_home": 0.57,
      "p_draw": 0.25,
      "p_away": 0.18,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Panama vs England",
      "home": "Panama",
      "away": "England",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-27T21:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 0.67,
      "exp_away_goals": 2.75,
      "exp_total": 3.42,
      "top_scoreline": "0-2",
      "p_home": 0.07,
      "p_draw": 0.13,
      "p_away": 0.81,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Colombia vs Portugal",
      "home": "Colombia",
      "away": "Portugal",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-27T23:30:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 0.98,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.53,
      "exp_total": 2.51,
      "top_scoreline": "1-1",
      "p_home": 0.24,
      "p_draw": 0.26,
      "p_away": 0.5,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Congo DR vs Uzbekistan",
      "home": "Congo DR",
      "away": "Uzbekistan",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-27T23:30:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 1.68,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.02,
      "exp_total": 2.7,
      "top_scoreline": "1-1",
      "p_home": 0.53,
      "p_draw": 0.25,
      "p_away": 0.23,
      "close": false
    },
    {
      "match": "Algeria vs Austria",
      "home": "Algeria",
      "away": "Austria",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-28T02:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 0.86,
      "exp_away_goals": 1.02,
      "exp_total": 1.88,
      "top_scoreline": "0-0",
      "p_home": 0.3,
      "p_draw": 0.32,
      "p_away": 0.38,
      "close": true
    },
    {
      "match": "Jordan vs Argentina",
      "home": "Jordan",
      "away": "Argentina",
      "kickoff": "2026-06-28T02:00:00+00:00",
      "exp_home_goals": 0.59,
      "exp_away_goals": 2.5,
      "exp_total": 3.08,
      "top_scoreline": "0-2",
      "p_home": 0.07,
      "p_draw": 0.14,
      "p_away": 0.79,
      "close": false
    }
  ],
  "source": "https://evmax.pages.dev",
  "license": "Attribution requested: evmax"
}