{
  "gameweek": 7,
  "generated_at": "2026-10-14T15:08:42.485571+00:00",
  "id": 106,
  "name": "Thiago",
  "web_name": "Thiago",
  "team": "BRE",
  "position": "FWD",
  "price": 7.8,
  "ownership_pct": 9.2,
  "status": "a",
  "news": "",
  "flag": null,
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:00:00+00:00",
  "projection": {
    "x_points": 5.95,
    "captain_ev": 11.9,
    "ceiling": 14.35,
    "value": 0.763,
    "bonus": 1.3,
    "defcon": 0.0,
    "p_defcon": 0.001,
    "cs_points": 0.0,
    "start_prob": 0.9987839476844095
  },
  "season": {
    "total_points": 14,
    "event_points": 4,
    "minutes": 532,
    "realized_ppm": 1.79
  },
  "transfers": {
    "in_event": 19613,
    "out_event": 40512
  },
  "ranks": {
    "xpts_rank": 4,
    "own_rank": 37,
    "own_vs_xpts_gap": 33
  },
  "verdict_tier": "S",
  "verdict": {
    "tier": "S",
    "price_band": "Mid",
    "stance": "we own him, in our XI",
    "rank_call": "buy"
  },
  "six_week_xpts": {
    "7": 5.95,
    "8": 5.58,
    "9": 5.61,
    "10": 5.1,
    "11": 5.58
  },
  "form_history": [
    {
      "round": 1,
      "total_points": 0,
      "minutes": 82,
      "starts": 1
    },
    {
      "round": 2,
      "total_points": 2,
      "minutes": 90,
      "starts": 1
    },
    {
      "round": 3,
      "total_points": 2,
      "minutes": 90,
      "starts": 1
    },
    {
      "round": 4,
      "total_points": 1,
      "minutes": 90,
      "starts": 1
    },
    {
      "round": 5,
      "total_points": 5,
      "minutes": 90,
      "starts": 1
    },
    {
      "round": 6,
      "total_points": 4,
      "minutes": 90,
      "starts": 1
    }
  ],
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "gw": 7,
      "opponent": "LIV",
      "venue": "H",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:00:00Z",
      "difficulty": 3,
      "lam_for": 1.62,
      "lam_against": 1.489,
      "source": "market"
    },
    {
      "gw": 8,
      "opponent": "HUL",
      "venue": "A",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:00:00Z",
      "difficulty": null,
      "lam_for": null,
      "lam_against": null,
      "source": "unpriced"
    },
    {
      "gw": 9,
      "opponent": "NFO",
      "venue": "H",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:00:00Z",
      "difficulty": null,
      "lam_for": null,
      "lam_against": null,
      "source": "unpriced"
    },
    {
      "gw": 10,
      "opponent": "BHA",
      "venue": "A",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-08T14:00:00Z",
      "difficulty": null,
      "lam_for": null,
      "lam_against": null,
      "source": "unpriced"
    },
    {
      "gw": 11,
      "opponent": "EVE",
      "venue": "H",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-23T20:00:00Z",
      "difficulty": null,
      "lam_for": null,
      "lam_against": null,
      "source": "unpriced"
    }
  ],
  "squads": {
    "model": true,
    "consensus": false,
    "model_role": "XI",
    "consensus_role": null
  },
  "notes": [
    "Thiago"
  ],
  "distribution": {
    "histogram": {
      "9": 1513,
      "8": 1001,
      "2": 3799,
      "13": 976,
      "17": 263,
      "7": 430,
      "1": 620,
      "12": 244,
      "5": 202,
      "15": 11,
      "10": 19,
      "6": 194,
      "11": 54,
      "14": 8,
      "0": 390,
      "16": 69,
      "-1": 51,
      "4": 39,
      "21": 52,
      "20": 22,
      "24": 4,
      "-2": 5,
      "3": 15,
      "19": 5,
      "29": 3,
      "25": 9,
      "-3": 1,
      "28": 1
    },
    "sims": 10000,
    "p10": 1,
    "median": 5,
    "mode": 2,
    "p90": 13,
    "p_haul": 0.174,
    "p_blank": 0.4866
  },
  "page": "/fpl/players/106-thiago/",
  "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.",
  "source": "https://evmax.ai",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)",
  "publication_status": "provisional",
  "inputs_captured_at": "2026-10-14T14:05:25.316666+00:00",
  "account_submission": "unverified"
}