{
  "competition": "fantasy_premier_league",
  "gameweek": 4,
  "article": "our-squad",
  "title": "Our squad — Gameweek 4",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-12T10:47:57.593494+00:00",
  "sims": 50000,
  "methodology": "Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.",
  "entries": [
    {
      "name": "Raya",
      "team": "ARS",
      "position": "GK",
      "x_points": 4.28,
      "captain_ev": 8.56,
      "ceiling": 8.8,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 39.0,
      "value": 0.713,
      "bonus": 0.59,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.0,
      "cs_points": 1.93,
      "kickoff": "2026-09-12T19:00:00+00:00",
      "distribution": {
        "1": 6259,
        "9": 3419,
        "8": 5736,
        "2": 12421,
        "7": 5024,
        "6": 6694,
        "5": 1809,
        "3": 3054,
        "11": 71,
        "4": 170,
        "10": 1166,
        "0": 3905,
        "-2": 87,
        "-1": 174,
        "-3": 10,
        "-4": 1
      },
      "p10": 1,
      "median": 3,
      "p90": 8,
      "mode": 2,
      "p_haul": 0.0247,
      "p_blank": 0.4571,
      "start_prob": 0.9876950135021174,
      "player_id": 1,
      "ep_next": 5.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 1,
      "role": "XI",
      "is_captain": false,
      "is_vice": false,
      "bench_order": null,
      "captain_multiplier": 3,
      "consensus_owns_haaland": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Tarkowski",
      "team": "EVE",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 3.53,
      "captain_ev": 7.05,
      "ceiling": 9.42,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 11.4,
      "value": 0.588,
      "bonus": 0.26,
      "defcon": 0.68,
      "p_defcon": 0.342,
      "cs_points": 0.86,
      "kickoff": "2026-09-12T16:30:00+00:00",
      "distribution": {
        "2": 9586,
        "3": 5954,
        "0": 4122,
        "9": 2145,
        "1": 11140,
        "7": 3792,
        "4": 4916,
        "8": 2292,
        "12": 239,
        "6": 1893,
        "10": 997,
        "16": 47,
        "5": 1222,
        "14": 176,
        "13": 120,
        "17": 130,
        "11": 324,
        "15": 229,
        "-2": 155,
        "-1": 434,
        "18": 19,
        "-3": 31,
        "19": 7,
        "23": 4,
        "20": 6,
        "-4": 9,
        "21": 8,
        "22": 2,
        "26": 1
      },
      "p10": 1,
      "median": 2,
      "p90": 8,
      "mode": 1,
      "p_haul": 0.0462,
      "p_blank": 0.5095,
      "start_prob": 0.9876950135021174,
      "player_id": 229,
      "ep_next": 7.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 2,
      "role": "XI",
      "is_captain": false,
      "is_vice": false,
      "bench_order": null,
      "captain_multiplier": 3,
      "consensus_owns_haaland": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Virgil",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 4.33,
      "captain_ev": 8.66,
      "ceiling": 10.79,
      "price": 6.5,
      "ownership_pct": 17.2,
      "value": 0.666,
      "bonus": 0.29,
      "defcon": 0.45,
      "p_defcon": 0.224,
      "cs_points": 1.36,
      "kickoff": "2026-09-12T14:00:00+00:00",
      "distribution": {
        "10": 885,
        "3": 2702,
        "6": 6217,
        "8": 3630,
        "2": 9816,
        "16": 167,
        "7": 3942,
        "1": 8564,
        "4": 3476,
        "0": 4067,
        "17": 228,
        "14": 486,
        "9": 1520,
        "11": 446,
        "5": 1983,
        "12": 383,
        "21": 49,
        "13": 295,
        "15": 662,
        "-1": 211,
        "19": 22,
        "-2": 110,
        "-3": 18,
        "18": 48,
        "23": 18,
        "20": 30,
        "24": 6,
        "22": 9,
        "27": 3,
        "-4": 2,
        "25": 1,
        "26": 3,
        "28": 1
      },
      "p10": 1,
      "median": 3,
      "p90": 9,
      "mode": 2,
      "p_haul": 0.0748,
      "p_blank": 0.4558,
      "start_prob": 0.9918661953658064,
      "player_id": 356,
      "ep_next": 3.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 3,
      "role": "XI",
      "is_captain": false,
      "is_vice": false,
      "bench_order": null,
      "captain_multiplier": 3,
      "consensus_owns_haaland": true
    },
    {
      "name": "N.Williams",
      "team": "NFO",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 3.64,
      "captain_ev": 7.29,
      "ceiling": 9.95,
      "price": 5.0,
      "ownership_pct": 8.2,
      "value": 0.728,
      "bonus": 0.42,
      "defcon": 0.4,
      "p_defcon": 0.201,
      "cs_points": 0.97,
      "kickoff": "2026-09-12T14:00:00+00:00",
      "distribution": {
        "4": 3885,
        "3": 3274,
        "2": 9958,
        "1": 11153,
        "7": 3182,
        "15": 297,
        "12": 540,
        "11": 737,
        "10": 1091,
        "9": 1896,
        "8": 3476,
        "0": 5624,
        "5": 1861,
        "-2": 144,
        "14": 264,
        "6": 1882,
        "13": 155,
        "-1": 370,
        "16": 37,
        "17": 73,
        "-3": 29,
        "18": 38,
        "21": 13,
        "20": 11,
        "19": 6,
        "-4": 3,
        "23": 1
      },
      "p10": 0,
      "median": 2,
      "p90": 9,
      "mode": 1,
      "p_haul": 0.0653,
      "p_blank": 0.5456,
      "start_prob": 0.9835238316384285,
      "player_id": 469,
      "ep_next": 5.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 4,
      "role": "XI",
      "is_captain": false,
      "is_vice": false,
      "bench_order": null,
      "captain_multiplier": 3,
      "consensus_owns_haaland": true
    },
    {
      "name": "B.Fernandes",
      "team": "MUN",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 5.39,
      "captain_ev": 10.77,
      "ceiling": 14.41,
      "price": 12.0,
      "ownership_pct": 44.5,
      "value": 0.449,
      "bonus": 0.84,
      "defcon": 0.05,
      "p_defcon": 0.025,
      "cs_points": 0.16,
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T15:30:00+00:00",
      "distribution": {
        "15": 1423,
        "6": 1870,
        "10": 2256,
        "2": 15175,
        "1": 3154,
        "12": 893,
        "7": 1412,
        "8": 2373,
        "9": 4005,
        "3": 3736,
        "11": 1206,
        "5": 2850,
        "4": 947,
        "-1": 180,
        "13": 1215,
        "16": 514,
        "0": 4495,
        "21": 103,
        "17": 211,
        "14": 970,
        "20": 269,
        "18": 348,
        "19": 153,
        "23": 72,
        "25": 36,
        "-2": 42,
        "22": 25,
        "33": 1,
        "26": 16,
        "35": 1,
        "28": 12,
        "31": 4,
        "24": 20,
        "29": 2,
        "32": 1,
        "30": 2,
        "34": 1,
        "27": 3,
        "-3": 1,
        "36": 2,
        "39": 1
      },
      "p10": 1,
      "median": 3,
      "p90": 13,
      "mode": 2,
      "p_haul": 0.1952,
      "p_blank": 0.4609,
      "start_prob": 0.9793526497747395,
      "player_id": 426,
      "ep_next": 9.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 5,
      "role": "XI",
      "is_captain": false,
      "is_vice": false,
      "bench_order": null,
      "captain_multiplier": 3,
      "consensus_owns_haaland": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Gibbs-White",
      "team": "NFO",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 4.93,
      "captain_ev": 9.87,
      "ceiling": 13.29,
      "price": 7.9,
      "ownership_pct": 9.4,
      "value": 0.624,
      "bonus": 0.73,
      "defcon": 0.04,
      "p_defcon": 0.022,
      "cs_points": 0.24,
      "kickoff": "2026-09-12T14:00:00+00:00",
      "distribution": {
        "10": 2940,
        "7": 1394,
        "1": 3144,
        "3": 6464,
        "4": 670,
        "9": 4050,
        "16": 614,
        "2": 17841,
        "5": 1068,
        "18": 102,
        "8": 2760,
        "6": 873,
        "15": 1647,
        "20": 302,
        "11": 1038,
        "19": 85,
        "-1": 219,
        "13": 431,
        "14": 521,
        "21": 98,
        "24": 5,
        "22": 17,
        "12": 285,
        "0": 3245,
        "23": 28,
        "25": 38,
        "17": 72,
        "-2": 27,
        "28": 3,
        "26": 10,
        "30": 5,
        "29": 1,
        "35": 1,
        "34": 1,
        "31": 1
      },
      "p10": 1,
      "median": 3,
      "p90": 11,
      "mode": 2,
      "p_haul": 0.1649,
      "p_blank": 0.4895,
      "start_prob": 0.9793526497747395,
      "player_id": 480,
      "ep_next": 6.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 6,
      "role": "XI",
      "is_captain": false,
      "is_vice": false,
      "bench_order": null,
      "captain_multiplier": 3,
      "consensus_owns_haaland": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Szoboszlai",
      "team": "LIV",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 5.77,
      "captain_ev": 11.54,
      "ceiling": 14.81,
      "price": 7.0,
      "ownership_pct": 38.4,
      "value": 0.824,
      "bonus": 0.83,
      "defcon": 0.26,
      "p_defcon": 0.129,
      "cs_points": 0.32,
      "kickoff": "2026-09-12T14:00:00+00:00",
      "distribution": {
        "3": 6375,
        "13": 1286,
        "9": 2945,
        "5": 3216,
        "15": 1176,
        "2": 10637,
        "14": 948,
        "4": 2175,
        "1": 2371,
        "10": 2880,
        "8": 2157,
        "7": 1393,
        "11": 1584,
        "21": 166,
        "18": 403,
        "30": 4,
        "0": 4394,
        "17": 347,
        "6": 2776,
        "-1": 136,
        "12": 1136,
        "20": 243,
        "16": 793,
        "19": 216,
        "23": 59,
        "-2": 29,
        "24": 21,
        "22": 59,
        "34": 1,
        "26": 20,
        "25": 30,
        "28": 7,
        "31": 4,
        "29": 1,
        "33": 2,
        "32": 1,
        "27": 8,
        "-3": 1
      },
      "p10": 1,
      "median": 4,
      "p90": 13,
      "mode": 2,
      "p_haul": 0.2279,
      "p_blank": 0.3514,
      "start_prob": 0.9835238316384285,
      "player_id": 368,
      "ep_next": 5.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 7,
      "role": "XI",
      "is_captain": false,
      "is_vice": true,
      "bench_order": null,
      "captain_multiplier": 3,
      "consensus_owns_haaland": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Thiago",
      "team": "BRE",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 5.28,
      "captain_ev": 10.56,
      "ceiling": 13.34,
      "price": 7.9,
      "ownership_pct": 11.4,
      "value": 0.668,
      "bonus": 1.12,
      "defcon": 0.01,
      "p_defcon": 0.003,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-09-12T14:00:00+00:00",
      "distribution": {
        "2": 20295,
        "17": 913,
        "8": 5287,
        "7": 2471,
        "9": 5931,
        "-1": 273,
        "12": 1185,
        "1": 3518,
        "5": 956,
        "6": 989,
        "13": 3981,
        "-2": 45,
        "4": 229,
        "16": 267,
        "0": 2947,
        "14": 26,
        "3": 75,
        "11": 217,
        "10": 109,
        "21": 147,
        "20": 49,
        "15": 44,
        "19": 11,
        "-3": 1,
        "25": 23,
        "22": 1,
        "24": 6,
        "18": 1,
        "28": 1,
        "23": 2
      },
      "p10": 1,
      "median": 2,
      "p90": 13,
      "mode": 2,
      "p_haul": 0.1397,
      "p_blank": 0.5416,
      "start_prob": 0.9876950135021174,
      "player_id": 106,
      "ep_next": 1.3,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 8,
      "role": "XI",
      "is_captain": false,
      "is_vice": false,
      "bench_order": null,
      "captain_multiplier": 3,
      "consensus_owns_haaland": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Evanilson",
      "team": "BOU",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 4.15,
      "captain_ev": 8.3,
      "ceiling": 10.99,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 3.2,
      "value": 0.692,
      "bonus": 0.8,
      "defcon": 0.01,
      "p_defcon": 0.006,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-09-12T14:00:00+00:00",
      "distribution": {
        "2": 25050,
        "-1": 309,
        "1": 4519,
        "9": 5697,
        "12": 760,
        "13": 1890,
        "7": 1594,
        "5": 1625,
        "6": 719,
        "8": 3563,
        "17": 267,
        "11": 350,
        "0": 2671,
        "-2": 54,
        "4": 446,
        "10": 125,
        "16": 152,
        "21": 26,
        "3": 81,
        "20": 14,
        "15": 50,
        "18": 5,
        "25": 3,
        "19": 6,
        "14": 19,
        "-3": 2,
        "23": 1,
        "22": 1,
        "24": 1
      },
      "p10": 1,
      "median": 2,
      "p90": 9,
      "mode": 2,
      "p_haul": 0.0734,
      "p_blank": 0.6521,
      "start_prob": 0.9668391041836725,
      "player_id": 79,
      "ep_next": 3.7,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 9,
      "role": "XI",
      "is_captain": false,
      "is_vice": false,
      "bench_order": null,
      "captain_multiplier": 3,
      "consensus_owns_haaland": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Calvert-Lewin",
      "team": "LEE",
      "position": "FWD",
      "x_points": 5.14,
      "captain_ev": 10.28,
      "ceiling": 13.71,
      "price": 6.0,
      "ownership_pct": 22.9,
      "value": 0.857,
      "bonus": 1.23,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.0,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-09-14T19:00:00+00:00",
      "distribution": {
        "9": 5833,
        "2": 17382,
        "-1": 204,
        "7": 1976,
        "11": 191,
        "13": 3990,
        "8": 5509,
        "1": 3885,
        "12": 1229,
        "17": 1099,
        "10": 65,
        "25": 34,
        "5": 673,
        "21": 223,
        "16": 262,
        "6": 649,
        "0": 6411,
        "24": 11,
        "3": 78,
        "20": 61,
        "4": 129,
        "-2": 39,
        "15": 25,
        "18": 6,
        "14": 16,
        "-3": 6,
        "19": 2,
        "28": 1,
        "29": 5,
        "22": 1,
        "23": 4,
        "33": 1
      },
      "p10": 0,
      "median": 2,
      "p90": 13,
      "mode": 2,
      "p_haul": 0.1445,
      "p_blank": 0.5585,
      "start_prob": 0.9584967404562945,
      "player_id": 346,
      "ep_next": 3.3,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 10,
      "role": "XI",
      "is_captain": false,
      "is_vice": false,
      "bench_order": null,
      "captain_multiplier": 3,
      "consensus_owns_haaland": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Cole Palmer",
      "team": "CHE",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 7.71,
      "captain_ev": 15.41,
      "ceiling": 18.87,
      "price": 9.7,
      "ownership_pct": 24.8,
      "value": 0.795,
      "bonus": 1.29,
      "defcon": 0.08,
      "p_defcon": 0.038,
      "cs_points": 0.41,
      "kickoff": "2026-09-12T14:00:00+00:00",
      "distribution": {
        "15": 2719,
        "3": 5941,
        "12": 827,
        "28": 56,
        "8": 3061,
        "14": 1400,
        "21": 831,
        "2": 6481,
        "9": 4243,
        "24": 177,
        "10": 3465,
        "20": 977,
        "6": 1661,
        "-1": 81,
        "1": 2301,
        "16": 2223,
        "11": 1207,
        "17": 332,
        "5": 1241,
        "7": 1246,
        "19": 536,
        "4": 572,
        "18": 611,
        "0": 5682,
        "22": 114,
        "13": 1160,
        "25": 233,
        "23": 200,
        "26": 182,
        "30": 47,
        "-2": 32,
        "32": 6,
        "49": 1,
        "27": 34,
        "-3": 1,
        "31": 35,
        "29": 42,
        "34": 13,
        "33": 10,
        "40": 3,
        "35": 7,
        "41": 1,
        "39": 3,
        "36": 4,
        "38": 1
      },
      "p10": 0,
      "median": 7,
      "p90": 16,
      "mode": 2,
      "p_haul": 0.3491,
      "p_blank": 0.2916,
      "start_prob": 0.9334696492741607,
      "player_id": 154,
      "ep_next": 7.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 11,
      "role": "XI",
      "is_captain": true,
      "is_vice": false,
      "bench_order": null,
      "captain_multiplier": 3,
      "consensus_owns_haaland": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Sánchez",
      "team": "CHE",
      "position": "GK",
      "x_points": 0.0,
      "captain_ev": 0.0,
      "ceiling": 0.0,
      "price": 4.9,
      "ownership_pct": 1.0,
      "value": 0.0,
      "bonus": 0.0,
      "defcon": 0.0,
      "p_defcon": 0.0,
      "cs_points": 0.0,
      "kickoff": "2026-09-12T14:00:00+00:00",
      "distribution": {
        "0": 50000
      },
      "p10": 0,
      "median": 0,
      "p90": 0,
      "mode": 0,
      "p_haul": 0.0,
      "p_blank": 1.0,
      "start_prob": 0.0,
      "player_id": 140,
      "ep_next": 0.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 12,
      "role": "Bench",
      "is_captain": false,
      "is_vice": false,
      "bench_order": 1,
      "captain_multiplier": 3,
      "consensus_owns_haaland": true
    },
    {
      "name": "E.Le Fée",
      "team": "SUN",
      "position": "MID",
      "x_points": 2.89,
      "captain_ev": 5.78,
      "ceiling": 8.35,
      "price": 5.9,
      "ownership_pct": 4.8,
      "value": 0.49,
      "bonus": 0.23,
      "defcon": 0.04,
      "p_defcon": 0.021,
      "cs_points": 0.16,
      "kickoff": "2026-09-12T19:00:00+00:00",
      "distribution": {
        "7": 896,
        "3": 5540,
        "2": 25362,
        "1": 4641,
        "6": 1280,
        "8": 1178,
        "9": 1430,
        "5": 2097,
        "14": 101,
        "4": 989,
        "10": 744,
        "12": 152,
        "-1": 307,
        "11": 425,
        "15": 155,
        "18": 20,
        "13": 229,
        "0": 4334,
        "17": 13,
        "16": 41,
        "-2": 45,
        "20": 9,
        "19": 3,
        "23": 1,
        "21": 6,
        "-3": 1,
        "22": 1
      },
      "p10": 1,
      "median": 2,
      "p90": 7,
      "mode": 2,
      "p_haul": 0.038,
      "p_blank": 0.6938,
      "start_prob": 0.9710102860473615,
      "player_id": 542,
      "ep_next": 4.3,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 13,
      "role": "Bench",
      "is_captain": false,
      "is_vice": false,
      "bench_order": 2,
      "captain_multiplier": 3,
      "consensus_owns_haaland": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Bobby Thomas",
      "team": "COV",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 2.98,
      "captain_ev": 5.96,
      "ceiling": 9.41,
      "price": 4.0,
      "ownership_pct": 8.9,
      "value": 0.745,
      "bonus": 0.36,
      "defcon": 0.59,
      "p_defcon": 0.293,
      "cs_points": 0.66,
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T13:00:00+00:00",
      "distribution": {
        "1": 10964,
        "2": 8327,
        "10": 1145,
        "4": 4167,
        "3": 5277,
        "9": 1920,
        "8": 2349,
        "0": 10005,
        "7": 1745,
        "11": 795,
        "-2": 145,
        "5": 762,
        "6": 1159,
        "14": 136,
        "12": 232,
        "15": 154,
        "17": 94,
        "-1": 461,
        "16": 26,
        "13": 74,
        "18": 12,
        "24": 1,
        "19": 5,
        "-3": 34,
        "23": 2,
        "20": 5,
        "-4": 2,
        "21": 1,
        "25": 1
      },
      "p10": 0,
      "median": 2,
      "p90": 8,
      "mode": 1,
      "p_haul": 0.0537,
      "p_blank": 0.5988,
      "start_prob": 0.8888380033326884,
      "player_id": 173,
      "ep_next": 5.0,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 14,
      "role": "Bench",
      "is_captain": false,
      "is_vice": false,
      "bench_order": 3,
      "captain_multiplier": 3,
      "consensus_owns_haaland": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Shaw",
      "team": "MUN",
      "position": "DEF",
      "x_points": 2.3,
      "captain_ev": 4.61,
      "ceiling": 7.68,
      "price": 4.4,
      "ownership_pct": 13.2,
      "value": 0.523,
      "bonus": 0.19,
      "defcon": 0.26,
      "p_defcon": 0.132,
      "cs_points": 0.62,
      "kickoff": "2026-09-13T15:30:00+00:00",
      "distribution": {
        "7": 2436,
        "1": 14536,
        "2": 9695,
        "4": 2293,
        "-1": 691,
        "-3": 57,
        "8": 1796,
        "0": 10776,
        "5": 1176,
        "11": 167,
        "9": 776,
        "6": 1950,
        "12": 157,
        "3": 2784,
        "10": 358,
        "13": 22,
        "-2": 223,
        "-4": 7,
        "15": 48,
        "14": 34,
        "18": 2,
        "-5": 1,
        "17": 10,
        "16": 3,
        "19": 1,
        "24": 1
      },
      "p10": 0,
      "median": 1,
      "p90": 7,
      "mode": 1,
      "p_haul": 0.0161,
      "p_blank": 0.7197,
      "start_prob": 0.9918661953658064,
      "player_id": 423,
      "ep_next": 2.3,
      "fixtures": 1,
      "rank": 15,
      "role": "Bench",
      "is_captain": false,
      "is_vice": false,
      "bench_order": 4,
      "captain_multiplier": 3,
      "consensus_owns_haaland": true
    }
  ],
  "source": "https://evmax.ai",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "license_text": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with attribution to evmax (https://evmax.ai)",
  "squad": {
    "team_name": "The Model XI",
    "strategy": "model",
    "formation": "3-4-3",
    "xi_xpoints": 54.15,
    "projected_total": 69.57,
    "captain": "Cole Palmer",
    "vice": "Szoboszlai",
    "captain_multiplier": 3,
    "active_chip": {
      "gameweek": 4,
      "chip": "3xc"
    },
    "total_cost": 99.7,
    "free_transfers": 0,
    "chips_used": [
      "3xc"
    ]
  }
}