{
  "status": "prospective_results",
  "gameweeks": [
    4
  ],
  "arms": {
    "consensus": {
      "net_points": 63,
      "rmse_equal_gameweek": 2.145144526172523,
      "mae_equal_gameweek": 1.1904580152671755,
      "model_versions": [
        "fpl-ffiq-reference-v1"
      ],
      "captain_bonus_points": 2,
      "hit_points": 0,
      "interventions": 0
    },
    "hybrid": {
      "net_points": 64,
      "rmse_equal_gameweek": 2.1641636527509696,
      "mae_equal_gameweek": 1.1871833157913687,
      "model_versions": [
        "fixed-equal-market-statistical-v1"
      ],
      "captain_bonus_points": 2,
      "hit_points": 0,
      "interventions": 0
    },
    "market": {
      "net_points": 65,
      "rmse_equal_gameweek": 2.196169878994924,
      "mae_equal_gameweek": 1.2189923664122138,
      "model_versions": [
        "market-no-editorial-v1"
      ],
      "captain_bonus_points": 3,
      "hit_points": 0,
      "interventions": 0
    },
    "statistical": {
      "net_points": 63,
      "rmse_equal_gameweek": 2.1866312799240872,
      "mae_equal_gameweek": 1.179736408479371,
      "model_versions": [
        "odds-free-early-ridge-v1"
      ],
      "captain_bonus_points": 2,
      "hit_points": 0,
      "interventions": 0
    }
  },
  "analysis": {
    "cohorts": {
      "all_players": {
        "consensus": {
          "gameweeks": 1,
          "player_gameweeks": 655,
          "rmse": 2.145144526172523,
          "mae": 1.1904580152671755,
          "bias": 0.0011450381679389318
        },
        "hybrid": {
          "gameweeks": 1,
          "player_gameweeks": 655,
          "rmse": 2.1641636527509696,
          "mae": 1.1871833157913687,
          "bias": -0.14575633774731467
        },
        "market": {
          "gameweeks": 1,
          "player_gameweeks": 655,
          "rmse": 2.196169878994924,
          "mae": 1.2189923664122138,
          "bias": -0.1620763358778626
        },
        "statistical": {
          "gameweeks": 1,
          "player_gameweeks": 655,
          "rmse": 2.1866312799240872,
          "mae": 1.179736408479371,
          "bias": -0.12943633961676676
        }
      },
      "prior_60plus": {
        "consensus": {
          "gameweeks": 1,
          "player_gameweeks": 185,
          "rmse": 3.43324171136386,
          "mae": 2.638108108108108,
          "bias": 0.11378378378378379
        },
        "hybrid": {
          "gameweeks": 1,
          "player_gameweeks": 185,
          "rmse": 3.4300319994869364,
          "mae": 2.6136761848689427,
          "bias": -0.1772502061359869
        },
        "market": {
          "gameweeks": 1,
          "player_gameweeks": 185,
          "rmse": 3.457318364031619,
          "mae": 2.619945945945946,
          "bias": -0.24827027027027027
        },
        "statistical": {
          "gameweeks": 1,
          "player_gameweeks": 185,
          "rmse": 3.4798742563733835,
          "mae": 2.6523913896792295,
          "bias": -0.10623014200170358
        }
      },
      "selected_by_any_arm": {
        "consensus": {
          "gameweeks": 1,
          "player_gameweeks": 15,
          "rmse": 4.046850627339734,
          "mae": 3.2933333333333334,
          "bias": -0.21333333333333335
        },
        "hybrid": {
          "gameweeks": 1,
          "player_gameweeks": 15,
          "rmse": 3.991082922225558,
          "mae": 3.30932015297321,
          "bias": -0.4331851913347826
        },
        "market": {
          "gameweeks": 1,
          "player_gameweeks": 15,
          "rmse": 3.90817775099001,
          "mae": 3.258666666666667,
          "bias": -0.25466666666666676
        },
        "statistical": {
          "gameweeks": 1,
          "player_gameweeks": 15,
          "rmse": 4.154613485764908,
          "mae": 3.3599736392797537,
          "bias": -0.6117037160028985
        }
      }
    },
    "comparisons": [
      {
        "cohort": "all_players",
        "left": "consensus",
        "right": "hybrid",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": -0.08195927772048073,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "consensus": [
            "fpl-ffiq-reference-v1@ea068d975f03eb465a4252ffd479a8c4e4d4956044c04bed6f86220cb085b7e1"
          ],
          "hybrid": [
            "fixed-equal-market-statistical-v1@ea9a3a9b38f59a8e14402ca176f40bdbefe362addf113bf5735038247129e47e"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "all_players",
        "left": "consensus",
        "right": "market",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": -0.22151709923664153,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "consensus": [
            "fpl-ffiq-reference-v1@ea068d975f03eb465a4252ffd479a8c4e4d4956044c04bed6f86220cb085b7e1"
          ],
          "market": [
            "market-no-editorial-v1@4dc8c58abea698fc74059d99180676412df8222319975bc833b3148b8d1e7066"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "all_players",
        "left": "consensus",
        "right": "statistical",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": -0.17971131617451253,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "consensus": [
            "fpl-ffiq-reference-v1@ea068d975f03eb465a4252ffd479a8c4e4d4956044c04bed6f86220cb085b7e1"
          ],
          "statistical": [
            "odds-free-early-ridge-v1@4047f2ff6d118ed4a0790a9a07614e4e4eb1fa5b09b9195652bcdb74dacb8a6e"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "all_players",
        "left": "hybrid",
        "right": "market",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": -0.1395578215161608,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "hybrid": [
            "fixed-equal-market-statistical-v1@ea9a3a9b38f59a8e14402ca176f40bdbefe362addf113bf5735038247129e47e"
          ],
          "market": [
            "market-no-editorial-v1@4dc8c58abea698fc74059d99180676412df8222319975bc833b3148b8d1e7066"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "all_players",
        "left": "hybrid",
        "right": "statistical",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": -0.0977520384540318,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "hybrid": [
            "fixed-equal-market-statistical-v1@ea9a3a9b38f59a8e14402ca176f40bdbefe362addf113bf5735038247129e47e"
          ],
          "statistical": [
            "odds-free-early-ridge-v1@4047f2ff6d118ed4a0790a9a07614e4e4eb1fa5b09b9195652bcdb74dacb8a6e"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "all_players",
        "left": "market",
        "right": "statistical",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": 0.04180578306212901,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "market": [
            "market-no-editorial-v1@4dc8c58abea698fc74059d99180676412df8222319975bc833b3148b8d1e7066"
          ],
          "statistical": [
            "odds-free-early-ridge-v1@4047f2ff6d118ed4a0790a9a07614e4e4eb1fa5b09b9195652bcdb74dacb8a6e"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "prior_60plus",
        "left": "consensus",
        "right": "hybrid",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": 0.022029131144297054,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "consensus": [
            "fpl-ffiq-reference-v1@ea068d975f03eb465a4252ffd479a8c4e4d4956044c04bed6f86220cb085b7e1"
          ],
          "hybrid": [
            "fixed-equal-market-statistical-v1@ea9a3a9b38f59a8e14402ca176f40bdbefe362addf113bf5735038247129e47e"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "prior_60plus",
        "left": "consensus",
        "right": "market",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": -0.1659016216216216,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "consensus": [
            "fpl-ffiq-reference-v1@ea068d975f03eb465a4252ffd479a8c4e4d4956044c04bed6f86220cb085b7e1"
          ],
          "market": [
            "market-no-editorial-v1@4dc8c58abea698fc74059d99180676412df8222319975bc833b3148b8d1e7066"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "prior_60plus",
        "left": "consensus",
        "right": "statistical",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": -0.3223761915215615,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "consensus": [
            "fpl-ffiq-reference-v1@ea068d975f03eb465a4252ffd479a8c4e4d4956044c04bed6f86220cb085b7e1"
          ],
          "statistical": [
            "odds-free-early-ridge-v1@4047f2ff6d118ed4a0790a9a07614e4e4eb1fa5b09b9195652bcdb74dacb8a6e"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "prior_60plus",
        "left": "hybrid",
        "right": "market",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": -0.18793075276591864,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "hybrid": [
            "fixed-equal-market-statistical-v1@ea9a3a9b38f59a8e14402ca176f40bdbefe362addf113bf5735038247129e47e"
          ],
          "market": [
            "market-no-editorial-v1@4dc8c58abea698fc74059d99180676412df8222319975bc833b3148b8d1e7066"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "prior_60plus",
        "left": "hybrid",
        "right": "statistical",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": -0.34440532266585855,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "hybrid": [
            "fixed-equal-market-statistical-v1@ea9a3a9b38f59a8e14402ca176f40bdbefe362addf113bf5735038247129e47e"
          ],
          "statistical": [
            "odds-free-early-ridge-v1@4047f2ff6d118ed4a0790a9a07614e4e4eb1fa5b09b9195652bcdb74dacb8a6e"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "prior_60plus",
        "left": "market",
        "right": "statistical",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": -0.1564745698999399,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "market": [
            "market-no-editorial-v1@4dc8c58abea698fc74059d99180676412df8222319975bc833b3148b8d1e7066"
          ],
          "statistical": [
            "odds-free-early-ridge-v1@4047f2ff6d118ed4a0790a9a07614e4e4eb1fa5b09b9195652bcdb74dacb8a6e"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "selected_by_any_arm",
        "left": "consensus",
        "right": "hybrid",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": 0.448257107919499,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "consensus": [
            "fpl-ffiq-reference-v1@ea068d975f03eb465a4252ffd479a8c4e4d4956044c04bed6f86220cb085b7e1"
          ],
          "hybrid": [
            "fixed-equal-market-statistical-v1@ea9a3a9b38f59a8e14402ca176f40bdbefe362addf113bf5735038247129e47e"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "selected_by_any_arm",
        "left": "consensus",
        "right": "market",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": 1.1031466666666656,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "consensus": [
            "fpl-ffiq-reference-v1@ea068d975f03eb465a4252ffd479a8c4e4d4956044c04bed6f86220cb085b7e1"
          ],
          "market": [
            "market-no-editorial-v1@4dc8c58abea698fc74059d99180676412df8222319975bc833b3148b8d1e7066"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "selected_by_any_arm",
        "left": "consensus",
        "right": "statistical",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": -0.8838132160996395,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "consensus": [
            "fpl-ffiq-reference-v1@ea068d975f03eb465a4252ffd479a8c4e4d4956044c04bed6f86220cb085b7e1"
          ],
          "statistical": [
            "odds-free-early-ridge-v1@4047f2ff6d118ed4a0790a9a07614e4e4eb1fa5b09b9195652bcdb74dacb8a6e"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "selected_by_any_arm",
        "left": "hybrid",
        "right": "market",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": 0.6548895587471666,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "hybrid": [
            "fixed-equal-market-statistical-v1@ea9a3a9b38f59a8e14402ca176f40bdbefe362addf113bf5735038247129e47e"
          ],
          "market": [
            "market-no-editorial-v1@4dc8c58abea698fc74059d99180676412df8222319975bc833b3148b8d1e7066"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "selected_by_any_arm",
        "left": "hybrid",
        "right": "statistical",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": -1.3320703240191385,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "hybrid": [
            "fixed-equal-market-statistical-v1@ea9a3a9b38f59a8e14402ca176f40bdbefe362addf113bf5735038247129e47e"
          ],
          "statistical": [
            "odds-free-early-ridge-v1@4047f2ff6d118ed4a0790a9a07614e4e4eb1fa5b09b9195652bcdb74dacb8a6e"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      },
      {
        "cohort": "selected_by_any_arm",
        "left": "market",
        "right": "statistical",
        "gameweeks": [
          4
        ],
        "mean_mse_difference": -1.986959882766305,
        "interval95": null,
        "status": "insufficient_gameweeks",
        "model_versions": {
          "market": [
            "market-no-editorial-v1@4dc8c58abea698fc74059d99180676412df8222319975bc833b3148b8d1e7066"
          ],
          "statistical": [
            "odds-free-early-ridge-v1@4047f2ff6d118ed4a0790a9a07614e4e4eb1fa5b09b9195652bcdb74dacb8a6e"
          ]
        },
        "interpretation": "Negative favors the left approach. Descriptive comparison, not a promotion decision."
      }
    ],
    "uncertainty_note": "Equal gameweek weights. Exploratory 95% moving-block intervals use 3-week blocks; require 12 consecutive eligible weeks with unchanged model versions. Intervals are not adjusted for multiple comparisons and do not establish next-season performance. Unknown external model revisions suppress intervals."
  },
  "note": "Separate forecast and squad scores. No automatic promotion or claim of superiority.",
  "registered_arms": {
    "market": "Market model without editorial overrides",
    "statistical": "Odds-free early-season ridge",
    "hybrid": "Prespecified 50/50 market-statistical blend",
    "consensus": "FPL + FFIQ forecast reference"
  },
  "pending_gameweeks": [],
  "gap_gameweeks": [
    {
      "gameweek": 5,
      "reason": "owner away 19 to 30 September 2026; no rehearsal or freeze was run for GW5"
    }
  ],
  "legacy_finality_gameweeks": [
    4
  ],
  "frozen_gameweeks": [
    4
  ],
  "receipts": [
    {
      "gameweek": 4,
      "forecast_artifact_id": "e59f4913c3c2e7c0def8d477518946b758b85cefe3ddab08d2bd684b267b2d8c",
      "captured_at": "2026-09-11T12:31:49.966516+00:00",
      "deadline": "2026-09-12T12:30:00+00:00",
      "protocol_sha256": "b70d3af1ce9105e1ee277c18763ac77e25dc2b08be3cc7da37a0d32997b4bcbb",
      "source_artifact_ids": [
        "f2ac85c033ce4f9e09752815f24b31bb29975b48ff8eb6af7362dda7e67211c2"
      ],
      "model_versions": {
        "consensus": "fpl-ffiq-reference-v1",
        "hybrid": "fixed-equal-market-statistical-v1",
        "market": "market-no-editorial-v1",
        "statistical": "odds-free-early-ridge-v1"
      },
      "receipt_note": "Local capture metadata; independent pre-deadline publication must be verified separately."
    }
  ],
  "experiment_id": "fpl-2026-27-shadow-v1",
  "protocol_sha256": "b70d3af1ce9105e1ee277c18763ac77e25dc2b08be3cc7da37a0d32997b4bcbb",
  "minutes_research": {
    "status": "research_candidate_not_integrated",
    "model": "minutes-transition-v1",
    "trained_through": "2024-05-19T15:00:00+00:00",
    "heldout_start": "2024-08-16T19:00:00+00:00",
    "scores": {
      "transition": {
        "n": 26555,
        "multiclass_brier": 0.30262128743793143,
        "log_loss": 0.5513747771072666,
        "minutes_mae": 15.498974202739698,
        "minutes_rmse": 23.98102057579325
      },
      "last4": {
        "n": 26555,
        "multiclass_brier": 0.31975685490984096,
        "log_loss": 0.5981080638787699,
        "minutes_mae": 13.56126545736637,
        "minutes_rmse": 25.13509197677024
      },
      "season": {
        "n": 26555,
        "multiclass_brier": 0.34948893302465367,
        "log_loss": 0.6212720420906311,
        "minutes_mae": 16.33295380420483,
        "minutes_rmse": 26.734051169729224
      }
    },
    "limitations": [
      "Retrospective extracts, not independently timestamped forecasts.",
      "Pre-GW history cutoff is first kickoff; actual historical deadlines unavailable.",
      "Target cohort contains recorded single-fixture player-gameweeks; blanks and doubles are not evaluated.",
      "No injuries, lineup news, club changes or cross-season player joins.",
      "Cold start uses historical position; historical registration-time position not independently verified.",
      "Transition classes describe played minutes, not whether a player started.",
      "Hyperparameters fixed before holdout; no comparison to production heuristic with its historical priors.",
      "Class-conditional minute means approximate the full minutes distribution; no production replacement justified."
    ]
  },
  "fixture_research": {
    "development": {
      "model": "fixture-ridge-research-v1",
      "status": "research_only",
      "scores": {
        "all_recorded": {
          "fixture": {
            "n": 26135,
            "mae": 1.0294094488227992,
            "rmse": 1.9634159529025217,
            "bias": -0.02795325792826342
          },
          "ablation": {
            "n": 26135,
            "mae": 1.03535456885223,
            "rmse": 1.970993966617644,
            "bias": -0.018447863085346045
          },
          "last4_per_fixture": {
            "n": 26135,
            "mae": 1.0601906766150118,
            "rmse": 2.1314832464457814,
            "bias": 0.001654868949684331
          }
        },
        "prior_60plus": {
          "fixture": {
            "n": 6501,
            "mae": 2.231735688007374,
            "rmse": 3.0678477955783925,
            "bias": -0.028102158277757333
          },
          "ablation": {
            "n": 6501,
            "mae": 2.2523381571190777,
            "rmse": 3.0847031264485913,
            "bias": -0.00891878381570469
          },
          "last4_per_fixture": {
            "n": 6501,
            "mae": 2.521073680972158,
            "rmse": 3.4079327993512853,
            "bias": 0.36009844639286265
          }
        },
        "double": {
          "fixture": {
            "n": 362,
            "mae": 1.8894483290670259,
            "rmse": 3.3989912840912013,
            "bias": -0.3063760347654769
          },
          "ablation": {
            "n": 362,
            "mae": 1.9110397846621656,
            "rmse": 3.451237403211951,
            "bias": -0.3141941698811859
          },
          "last4_per_fixture": {
            "n": 362,
            "mae": 1.9976979742173113,
            "rmse": 3.692057990309201,
            "bias": -0.0501841620626151
          }
        }
      },
      "fixture_minus_ablation_equal_gw_mse": -0.030141434771515225,
      "exploratory_block95": [
        -0.05394963806626676,
        0.00033972897942896634
      ],
      "limitations": [
        "Retrospective fixtures and positions, not archived deadline snapshots.",
        "Cutoff proxy: first GW kickoff minus two hours; prior kickoff plus three hours must precede it.",
        "Only recorded player-gameweeks with prior fixtures; no validated blank or cold-start cohort.",
        "Doubles summed by fixture with identical pre-GW player history; no first-leg outcome leakage.",
        "Ablation isolates fixture features; not a head-to-head comparison with the production GW ridge.",
        "No odds, FC27, injury or historical availability inputs; scoring rules can change between seasons.",
        "Intervals are exploratory, unadjusted and do not establish a prospective edge."
      ]
    },
    "validation": {
      "model": "fixture-ridge-research-v1",
      "status": "research_only",
      "scores": {
        "all_recorded": {
          "fixture": {
            "n": 28497,
            "mae": 1.0080657843002931,
            "rmse": 1.9688390740294832,
            "bias": -0.07831285193978449
          },
          "ablation": {
            "n": 28497,
            "mae": 1.018105126874557,
            "rmse": 1.9767689782645763,
            "bias": -0.05818173807914238
          },
          "last4_per_fixture": {
            "n": 28497,
            "mae": 1.0513445859798107,
            "rmse": 2.1491367615570156,
            "bias": 0.013714893965446655
          }
        },
        "prior_60plus": {
          "fixture": {
            "n": 6502,
            "mae": 2.3125664978314386,
            "rmse": 3.1444283732060065,
            "bias": -0.20301077947173918
          },
          "ablation": {
            "n": 6502,
            "mae": 2.3550848559660396,
            "rmse": 3.1667544444341607,
            "bias": -0.1402247230413398
          },
          "last4_per_fixture": {
            "n": 6502,
            "mae": 2.7095252742745823,
            "rmse": 3.5321697478924268,
            "bias": 0.481492873987491
          }
        },
        "double": {
          "fixture": {
            "n": 408,
            "mae": 1.578070418971146,
            "rmse": 2.769278214676882,
            "bias": -0.15937431579459263
          },
          "ablation": {
            "n": 408,
            "mae": 1.6071350054253288,
            "rmse": 2.7872564051608486,
            "bias": -0.11904049634808715
          },
          "last4_per_fixture": {
            "n": 408,
            "mae": 1.5980392156862746,
            "rmse": 3.0738460292872034,
            "bias": 0.0024509803921568627
          }
        }
      },
      "fixture_minus_ablation_equal_gw_mse": -0.03202443530670231,
      "exploratory_block95": [
        -0.05557510987816728,
        -0.005302035399869302
      ],
      "limitations": [
        "Retrospective fixtures and positions, not archived deadline snapshots.",
        "Cutoff proxy: first GW kickoff minus two hours; prior kickoff plus three hours must precede it.",
        "Only recorded player-gameweeks with prior fixtures; no validated blank or cold-start cohort.",
        "Doubles summed by fixture with identical pre-GW player history; no first-leg outcome leakage.",
        "Ablation isolates fixture features; not a head-to-head comparison with the production GW ridge.",
        "No odds, FC27, injury or historical availability inputs; scoring rules can change between seasons.",
        "Intervals are exploratory, unadjusted and do not establish a prospective edge."
      ]
    }
  },
  "fixture_shadow": {
    "state": "shadow_rehearsal_not_frozen",
    "gameweek": 4,
    "generated_at": "2026-09-07T19:46:45.237862+00:00",
    "frozen_at": null,
    "deadline": "2026-09-12T12:30:00+00:00",
    "artifact_id": "f39a4bc0cfe6a78f35edb026d456911a4018c0b6e69464b7fcc6cf8a91cbccd3",
    "model_identity_sha256": "321f3185546c45b92a0e4727b14c3a13d725bd99804891e9f40e7512975190c5",
    "players": 654,
    "comparison_players": 654,
    "cold_starts": 0,
    "blanks": 0,
    "mean_prediction_difference": -0.06882896967945602,
    "mean_absolute_prediction_difference": 0.0978067720393558,
    "limitations": [
      "No prospective result yet; this is separate from the four-arm squad experiment.",
      "Cold starts copy production and are excluded from the fixture comparison; blanks are reported separately.",
      "Official availability scaling and per-fixture clamping were not part of historical evaluation.",
      "Missing zero-history rows cannot be inferred from season totals; API coverage remains a limitation.",
      "Local receipts and hashes are not independent proof of pre-deadline publication."
    ]
  },
  "lineup_research": {
    "status": "decision_rehearsal_not_enrolled",
    "gameweek": 4,
    "generated_at": "2026-09-07T20:50:42.727340+00:00",
    "artifact_id": "4e71a8f03b624e76f7220f134629fcab7f5f18ddec9d561d6ff1d629bcd689b1",
    "policy_version": "joint-scenario-lineup-v1",
    "limitations": [
      "Scenario expectations are not observed performance or evidence of a points gain.",
      "Appearance marginals approximate raw production priors, not simulated joint team lineups.",
      "Constant points given appearance omit role/points dependence and opponent correlations.",
      "Shared-club dependence is an extreme sensitivity assumption, not an estimated model.",
      "Separate random-seed audit reduces scenario-selection optimism but does not validate assumptions.",
      "No transfers, chips or policy changes to the four-arm experiment."
    ],
    "audit_deltas": {
      "production": {
        "independent": 0.0,
        "shared_club": 0.0
      },
      "fixture": {
        "independent": 0.0,
        "shared_club": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "joint_lineup_research": {
    "status": "joint_engine_rehearsal_not_enrolled",
    "gameweek": 4,
    "generated_at": "2026-09-07T21:00:02.255508+00:00",
    "source_artifact_id": "8f9801727c28b263ebc57744ec05d6506c37ea27c892d9aae62e7093d6355a51",
    "sims_per_seed": 5000,
    "optimization_seed": 12345,
    "audit_seed": 12346,
    "audit_delta": -0.017800000000050886,
    "monte_carlo_precision": {
      "mean": -0.0178,
      "standard_error": 0.030637303420375857,
      "normal_interval95": [
        -0.07784911470393668,
        0.04224911470393668
      ],
      "note": "Monte Carlo precision conditional on this simulator, not a confidence interval for real-world improvement."
    },
    "limitations": [
      "Engine simulations, not observed performance or demonstrated calibration.",
      "Joint draws retain the engine's dependence; between-fixture and availability assumptions remain model limitations.",
      "Market model only: these samples are not statistical, hybrid or external forecast distributions.",
      "Separate audit seed reduces simulation-selection optimism, not modeling error.",
      "No transfers, chips, frozen enrollment or changes to the controlled squad policy."
    ]
  }
}